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1、哈尔滨工业大学金融硕士学位论文AbstractWiththedevelopmentofeconomy,capitalmarketisbecomingmoreandmoreimportant,butatpresentourcountrycapitalmarketstillintheearlystage,smallandmediuminvestor'sphilosophyisnotyetmature,easytofollowblindly,copycathype,buyingthewinners,influentthesteadyofsecuritiesmarketser
2、iously.Therefore,itisofgreatsignificanceforinvestors,especiallysmallandmedium-sizedinvestorstosetupthecorrectvalueinvestmentidea,tomasterthevalueinvestmentanalysismethodsandtoolssystematically,toformacomprehensiveinvestmentvalueassessmentsystem,analysisandevaluationoftheinvestmentvalueo
3、flistedcompaniesobjectively.Thispaperreviewstheresearchrelatedissuesathomeandabroad,summarizestherelevanttheoreticalbasisaboutenterpriseinvestmentvalueanalysis,discussestheadvantagesandapplicabilityoffreecashflowdiscountmodelintheinvestmentvalueanalysis.Tosolvethedifficultiesoffreecashf
4、lowdiscountmodelinapplication,thispaperintroducesgreypredictionmodelcreatively,andexpoundstheconcreteprincipleandapplicationprocessofthemodel.Usingacombinationoftextdescriptionanddataanalysistoexplorehowthemacro-economicoperation,thedairyindustrydevelopmentandthecompany'sperformanceinfl
5、uenceYili’sinvestmentvaluefromthemacro,mesoandmicrothreebasicaspects.Toprovideareferencemodelforinvestorstoanalysisinvestmentvalueofcompanycomprehensivelyandqualitatively.Onthisbasis,throughcollectandcollatetheconcreteprojectofYili’snearly10yearsfinancialstatements，calculatethehistorica
6、lannualfreecashflow,andcomparewiththesamplesimulationdataofgreymodel,provethatgreypredictionmodeliseffectiveandfeasibleintermsoffreecashflowforecast,whichapplytoduringfuturefreecashflowforecasts.Choosereasonablemethodstodeterminethecost-II-哈尔滨工业大学金融硕士学位论文ofcapitaloftheenterpriseandusefr
7、eecashflow(DCF)modeltoestimatetheinvestmentvalueofenterprise,provideaframeworkforinvestorstoanalysisinvestmentvalueofcompanypreciselyandquantitatively,andonthisbasisputsforwardthespecificinvestmentadvice.Keywords：investmentvalue，freecashflowdiscountmodel，greypredictionmodel-III
