化工行业环境风险评价方法的分析

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1、ABSTRACTThebirthofenvironmentriskassessment(ERA)signstheimportanttransitionofenvironmentprotectionstrategy，anditcallforecastandmanagetheriskpriortothea-ccident，whichcouldreducetheprobabilityandharmofaccidents．Duetotheproduc-tionparticularityofchemicalindustry，oncetheaccide

2、nthappened，itoftencausedm—uchpropertyloss,casualtiesandenvironmentpollution，theconsequencewasveryse—dous．Therefore，itisnecessaryforthestudyontheERAofchemicalindustry．ItcombinedthecurrentproblemsofERAwiththeriskcharacteristicsoftheche·micalindustrytoexplorethefollowingdiscu

3、ssion：TherelativityanddistinctionofERAandsafetyevaluationwasanalysed，whichprovidedthereferenceforthebetterresearchandpracticeofERA；thevarioustypesofERAmethodswereclassified，anditsummedupandcomparedthecharacteristicsofvariousmethods，finally，chosethefaulttreeanalysismethodto

4、studythemostere—dibleaccidentofthesyntheticammoniaproject．Itcollectedthestatisticsandanalysedtheaccidentstothedomesticammoniapr-ojectinpast20years，andshowedthatthetimesandthecasualtiesofleakageaccidentweremorethanthefireorexplosioninthevarioustypesofrisk,andtheleakageacci—

5、dentofammoniatankregionaccountedforalargeproportion,whichprovidedsomeproofforthemostcredibleaccidentofthesyntheticammoniaproject．Combinedoneenergy-savingtechnologytransformationprojectoftheGansusy-ntheticammoniafertilizerplants，andusedtheVIAtoanalysedthemostcredibleace-ide

6、ntoftheprojectqualitativelywhichhadidentified-一liquidammonialeakage，basedontheminimumcutandthepathsets，andtheeffectivemeasurestopreventtheleaka·geaccidentwereadvanced；finally,itassumedthatonefundamentalincidentinthefa·nittreehappened,combinedlocalweatherconditions，resident

7、ialareasdistributionandthetoxicammoniacharacteristics，forecastedtheharmfulscopeandtheriskvalue，andconcl：udedthattheriskvalueofthemostcredibleaccidentiSlowerthantheche-micalindustrystatisticsvalue，andfinallymadetheconclusionthattheprojectriskcouldbeacceptable．。Thesubjectofs

8、tudyprovidesreferencenotonlyfortheprojectriskmanagementanddecision-making，butforcarryingo