焦化行业价格预测模型与应用分析

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1、华中科技大学硕士学位论文—；——；————===——≈——=—=；——————％一ABSTRACTWiththeenteringtotheWTO，thecompetitionbetweentheenterprisesbecomesmoreandmoreintensive，andmuchofthecompetitionisontheprice．Soit'sveryimportanttoforecastandadjustthepriceaccuratelyandtimelyaccordingtothechangingofthemarketconditions．However'atpre

2、sentmostenterprisesforecastthepriceoftheirproductsnotbysciencemethodbutonlyqualitativeanalysis，anditdosenotwelladapttothecompetition．Theaimofthispaperistobuildaneffectivepriceforecastingmodelforcokingindustry．Atthebeginning，thispaperexplainsthefoundationalforecasttheories，discussesthefundament

3、alcategoryandprinciplesforforecastingandthebasicimplementsteps，andputsthefocusonthecomparisonofthesetwomethods---qualitativeanalysisandquantitativeanalysis．Then，thecokingindustryfeaturesandfactors，whichwillinfluencetheprice，areanalyzed．Withtheseanalyticalresults，themajorinfluencefactorsonprice

4、aredetermined．Throughthefurtherexplorationontherelationsbetweenthecokingproductpriceandthoseinfluencefactors，thispaperbuildssomeforecastingsub．modelsbasedondifferentinfluencefactorsrespectivelyandproposesacombinationforecastingmodelfromthem．ThemodelCantosomeextendavoidsomenegativeinfluencesofp

5、redictionprecisionfromtheinformationselectionbypeople’Ssubjectivity．AttheSametime，thismodelisalsomademoreeffectivebyadoptingaweightcoefficientcorrectmodeltoamendtheweightcoefficientofthecombinationforecastingmodeldynamically．InordertOpromotethemodel’Sadaptabilityandfullyconsidersomeinfluenceso

6、nthemodelprecisionfrommanyunpredictablefactorssuchasmarketsituationchangesandtechnologicalprogress，thehuman-machineharmonymechanismisintroducedtothismodel．Furthermore，thispaperdefmesvalidityforthemodelandprovideseffectiveverificationformulationsasthetheorybasisforevaluatingit．Attheendofthispap

7、er，thevalidityofthemodelisverifiedbythedatumfromCokingCorporationLTD．ofWuHanIronandSteelGroupCo．theresultsshowsthattheCombinationmode“Smoreaccurateandeffectivecomparedwitheachsub．model．Keywords：CombinationForecastingTimeSequenceRegressi