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1、EquilibriumLaborMarketSearchandHealthInsuranceReformNaokiAizawayHanmingFangzFirstDraft:August15,2012ThisDraft:October21,2012AbstractWepresentandempiricallyimplementanequilibriumlabormarketsearchmodelwhereriskaverseworkersfacingmedicalexpenditureshocksar
2、ematchedwithemployersmakinghealthinsurancecover-agedecisions.Thedistributionsofwages,healthinsuranceprovisions,employersize,employmentandworker'shealthareallendogenouslydeterminedinequilibrium.Weestimateourmodelusingvariousmicrodatasourcesincludingthe199
3、6paneloftheSurveyofIncomeandProgramParticipation(SIPP),theMedicalExpenditurePanelSurvey(MEPS,1997-1999)andthe1997RobertWoodJohnsonFoun-dationEmployerHealthInsuranceSurvey.Weuseourestimatedmodeltoevaluatetheequilibriumimpactofthe2010A ordableCareAct(ACA)a
4、nd ndthattheitwouldreducetheuninsuredratefrom20.12%to7.03%.Wealsoevaluateavarietyofalternativepoliciestounderstandtherolesofdi erentcomponentsoftheACAandtosearchforbetterpolicydesigns.Keywords:Health,HealthInsurance,HealthCareReform,LaborMarketEquilibriu
5、mJELClassi cationNumber:G22,I11,I13,J32.WewouldliketothankGadiBarlevy,ChrisFlinn,EricFrench,JohnRust,AndrewShephard,KenWolpinandsemi-nar/conferenceparticipantsatChineseUniversityofHongKong,FudanUniversity,PekingUniversity,TsinghuaUniversity,FederalReser
6、veBanksofChicagoandNewYork,SocietyofEconomicDynamicsAnnualConference(2012),NorthAmericanEconometricSocietySummerMeeting(2012)andStructuralEstimationofBehavioralModelsConferenceinHonorofKennethI.Wolpinforhelpfulcommentsandsuggestions.Weareresponsibleforal
7、lremainingerrors.yDepartmentofEconomics,UniversityofPennsylvania,3718LocustWalk,Philadelphia,PA19104.Email:naizawa@sas.upenn.eduzDepartmentofEconomics,UniversityofPennsylvania,3718LocustWalk,Philadelphia,PA19104andtheNBER.Email:hanming.fang@econ.upenn.ed
8、u1IntroductionTheA ordableCareAct(hereafter,ACA),signedintolawbyPresidentBarackObamainMarch2010,representsthemostsigni cantreformstotheU.S.healthinsuranceandhealthcaremarketsincetheestablishmentofMedicarein1965.1Thehealthc
