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1、黑龙江工程学院本科生毕业设计附录MarketAnalysisandForecastofLightVehicleTransmission1GlobaltransmissionmarketstatusThecurrentglobalvehicleproductionincreasesatanaverageannualrateof3.5%peryearandisexpectedtoatleast89millionat2015.Withtheincreaseinlightvehicleproduction,manualtransmissionandplanetarygearautomatictra
2、nsmissionisalsoexpectedtoyieldincreases,buttheywillbeoccupiedapartoftheCVTmarketsharebytheAMT.Comparedwithplanetarygeartransmission,AMTandtheCVTautomatictransmissioncannotonlyimprovethetransmissionefficiencyanddecreaseproductioncosts,butalsocanquicklyimprovetheshiftquality;soitisexpectedthatAMTwil
3、lbehighergrowthrates.CVTapplicationswillbelimitedtosmallvehicles,butiftheringIVTtechnologyinpracticalapplicationsbecomemoremature,reliableandgainmarketacceptance,itcanachievestronggrowthmomentum.2TransmissionMarketAnalysisandForecast2.1manualtransmission(MT)Overtheyears,WesternEuropefocusonstudyin
4、gdrivingcontrol,manufacturingcostsandfueleconomyandotherissues,becomingthelargestmarketformanualtransmissions,butitisexpectedthatinthenext5years,themarketpositionofthemanualtransmissionwilleventuallybereplacedbyEasternEuropeandAsia.However,inwholeEurope,theproportionofmanualtransmissionhasbeenonth
5、edecline,especiallywhentheAMTgainsmoremarketshareandtheautomatictransmissionisappliedthesmallcarmarketandmanualtransmissionintheEuropeannewcarmarketshareisexpectedtodecreasefrom2005Inabout80%to70%in2010,about55%by2015.AtAsia-Pacificregion(excludingJapan),manualtransmissionmarketshareisexpectedtode
6、creasefrom87%in2005downto85%in2010anddropto83%in2015.However,automatictransmissionandCVTareverypopularinJapan,andmanualtransmissionwilllosemarketsharegradually,expectingtodeclinefromthecurrent22%to13%in2010.InNorthAmerica,themanualtransmissionmarketshareisexpectedtocontinuetodecline,from13%in2005d
7、ownto11%in2010,andby2015only10%ofthemarket.InChina,India,PacificRimandSouthAmerica,5-speedmanualtransmissionisexpectedtocontinuetooccupymostofthemarketshare.Overall,asaslightincreaseinglobalautomotiveproduction,t
