水资源研究—基于copula函数的东江流域水文干旱特征分析

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1、JournalofWaterResourcesResearch水资源研究,2012,1,110-118doi:10.4236/jwrr.2012.13016PublishedOnlineJune2012(http://www.hanspub.org/journal/jwrr)HydrologicalDroughtsAnalysisBasedonCopulas*FunctionintheEastRiverBasin,China1,2,31,2,31,2,34MingzhongXiao,QiangZhang,XiaohongChen,Y

2、ongqinDavidChen1DepartmentofWaterResourcesandEnvironment,SunYat-senUniversity,Guangzhou2KeyLaboratoryofWaterCycleandWaterSecurityinSouthernChinaofGuangdongHighEducationInstitute,SunYat-senUniversity,Guangzhou3SchoolofGeographyandPlanning,andGuangdongKeyLaboratoryforUrb

3、anizationandGeo-simulation,SunYat-senUniversity,Guangzhou4DepartmentofGeographyandResourceManagement,TheChineseUniversityofHongKong,HongKongEmail:xmingzh@mail2.sysu.edu.cnReceived:Feb.21st,2012;revised:Mar.14th,2012;accepted:Mar.24th,2012Abstract:Variationsofhydrologic

4、aldroughtslargelydecidethevariabilityandavailabilityofwaterre-sourcesofariverbasin.TheEastRiverbasinbearstheheavyresponsibilityforwatersupplyforthemegaci-tieswithinthePearlRiverDeltaregionandthoseinthevicinityofthePearlRiverDeltasuchasShenzhenandHongKong.About80%ofthew

5、aterconsumptionofHongKonghastobesatisfiedbythewatersupplyfromtheEastRiver.Inthiscase,thesustainablewatersupplyfromtheEastRiverbasinwillbegreatlysig-nificantfortheregionalsocialstability.Inthisstudy,statisticalbehaviorsandrisksofthehydrologicaldroughtsoftheEastRiverbasi

6、nareevaluatedusingcopulafunctionsandthesecondaryreturnperiodsbasedonthedailystreamflowdatacoveringtheperiodof1975-2009.Theresearchresultsindicatethatthehydro-logicaldroughtsofhighdroughtseverityandlongdurationaresubjectedtothedecreasingrisksfromtheup-pertothelowerEastR

7、iverbasin.However,thedroughtsofhigherseverityorlongdurationaresubjectedtothelowerriskintheupperEastRiverbasinwhencomparedtothoseinthelowerEastRiverbasin.Waterre-sourcesmanagementoftheEastRiverbasinshouldbeintegratedbytakingtheEastRiverbasinasawhole.Andtheresultsofthiss

8、tudywillprovidetheoreticalandscientificgroundsforthebasin-scalewaterresourcesmanagement.Keywords:HydrologicalDrought;