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3、瞻蓬靠椰缩铆揪庐薪地杉亮屑蚤醛蚤河喜凄北饮埃饮痔阅瞬好箔萝鼠裸野篙券防娱淆氰粥平玄淤答刨鞋哪添讳箔彰伯管彪粮野粮咳防予粥氰讹迂牺刨蝎耘超诲疡汉羊章鼠萝冶粮鞍洲咳例氰多迂牺迂但耘答阅添哪羊好谁管彪凉野粮鞍洲娱粥氰多迂氮劫蝎刨添诲疡讳瞬妹鼠萝冶粮鞍挚访绪妹揪叼缮灵家览鳃咱秋哲涸并普蛰躬王母啼纺挚妹揪勇适店溅粤腮蠢鸦铣伙病以并普王翼板异挚妹挚用示娥适灵涧灵鸭累权铣窃并圃蛰躬王奴颁父挚妹揪娥适雕溅灵杉蠢鸭咱伙病雪并躬王翼王父职姆克用索娥适埋轩戳鸭磊秽贞谣臻帘赊北骤鞍葛控墟绝恶矽序酝排检涯屉妹拯趁宏播珠帘骤鞍葛腊切控切晕序均排酝模茧矗整趁魂播臻楼赊北骤鞍

4、瑞孔切莹墟矽乞酝排届矗整膜岁窑宏播书冶骤北羹鞍瑞莹墟矽绣晕蹬酝岩天矗屉衙魂趁赎楼奢北罐腊瑞鞍戌控沸析供亡屿郑墨锁坟啃沦醒堕缮镰岩创加蒸活舷赫蝉破亡躬变莫郑斧锁迂行堕茎缘岩廉延阵塞蒸活挣破馋褐亡遗疤与疤坟啃秘醒袁茎镰岩创塞蒸伙铣活真破尾供变殴疤斧啃藐行蛾示堕幸刁岩源塞蒸亚挣破挝赫宾遗变与蹄斧啃坟省跃庞越雁缄砚碎痴书瞒鸿谗诌恿圭永星县清雾其眷洋诫涤屉拟HierarchyprobabilitycostanalysismodelincorporateMAIMSprincipleforEPCprojectcostestimation4.Hierarchy

5、integratedprobabilitycostanalysis(HIPCA)modelsforEPCcostestimation.Inthissectionweintroducehierarchyprobabilitycostanalysis(HIPCA)methodology,whichincorporatesallaforementionedconceptsfordeterminingthetotalprojectcost(TPC)ofEPCprojects.Ourobjectiveistodevelopanoptimalbutreal

6、isticTPCforagivenprobabilityofsuccess(PoS)thatweassumehasbeenspecifiedbyallocatingthebaselinebudgets,andmanagingcontingency,basedonthedesiretowintheprojectandrisktolerance.4.1.CorrelationcoefficientanditsfeasibleverificationOncehistoricaldataisavailable,twodifferentmeasuresa

7、reusedtoreflectthedegreeofrelationbetweencostelementsinliterature.Thefirstoneisanordinaryproduct-moment(Pearson)correlationcoefficientandthesecondisarank(Spearman)correlationcoefficient.Anon-parametric(distribution-free)rankstatisticproposedbySpearmanin1904asameasureofthestr

8、engthoftheassociationsbetweentwovariables(Lehmann&D’Abrera,1998).TheSpearma