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1、THEAMERICANENTERPRISEINSTITUTEWORKINGPAPERSERIESONDEVELOPMENTPOLICYNUMBER5,February2011WORKINGPAPERWorldPopulationProspectsandtheGlobalEconomicOutlook:TheShapeofThingstoComeNicholasEberstadtWORKINGPAPERTheAmericanEnterpriseInstituteWorkingPaperSerieso
2、nDevelopmentPolicyTheAmericanEnterpriseInstituteWorkingPaperSeriesinDevelopmentPolicyisaforumforshowcasingnewscholarlyworkthatmayhelpextendtherealmofknowledgeorenhancetheunderstandingofpolicymakers,non-governmentalspecialists,andmembersofthepublicconc
3、ernedwithimprovingthequalityofinternationaldevelopmentpolicy.Thepurviewofthisworkingpaperseriesincludesissuesindemographics,publichealthandnutrition,humanresources,developmentassistance,institutionalandlegaldevelopment,tradepolicy,thebroaderinterplayb
4、etweenpolicyandeconomicgrowth,andothermattersultimatelybearingupontheextensionofhumanchoiceinlowincomeregions.Theseriesismeanttoofferrapidinitialdisseminationoforiginalresearchandanalysisthatmayfindeventualpublicationinscholarlyjournalsorothersuitable
5、venues.TheseriesappearsundertheauspicesofAEI‘sWendtPrograminPoliticalEconomy.WorkingPaperSeriesSteeringCommittee:NicholasEberstadt(chair),AmericanEnterpriseInstitutePhilipI.Levy,AmericanEnterpriseInstituteMauroDeLorenzo,AmericanEnterpriseInstituteandT
6、empletonFoundationApoorvaShah,AmericanEnterpriseInstitute1WorldPopulationProspectsandtheGlobalEconomicOutlook:TheShapeofThingstoComeNicholasEberstadt*February28,2011CommentswelcomeJELClassification:I0,J11,J13,J21,J26,O3,O5Keywords:Demographicprojectio
7、ns;fertilitydecline;populationaging;economicdevelopment;emergingmarkets;developedeconomies;China;India;Russia,Japan;WesternEurope,UnitedStates.Abstract:Thispaperexaminesglobaldemographicprospectstotheyear2030andassessestheinfluencethatimpendingpopulat
8、iontrendsmayhaveuponeconomicperformanceincomingyearsfortheworldasawholeandthemajorregionaleconomies.Areasonablyreliableassessmentofprospectiveglobaltrendsto2030isfeasibletodaybecausetheoverwhelmingmajorityofpeoplewhowillbelivinginthatfuturewor
