Doing Bayesian Data Analysis_ A Tutorial with R and BUGS(1).pdf

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1、DoingBayesianDataAnalysis:ATutorialwithRandBUGSJohnK.KruschkeDraftofMay11,2010.Pleasedonotcirculatethispreliminarydraft.IfyoureportBayesiananalysesbasedonthisbook,pleasedociteit!⌢¨Copyrightc2010byJohnK.Kruschke.iiDedicatedtomymother,MarilynA.Kruschke,and

2、tothememoryofmyfather,EarlR.Kruschke,whobothbrilliantlyexemplifiedandtaughtsoundreasoning.And,inhonorofmyfather,whodedicatedhisfirstbooktohischildren,Ialsodedicatethisbooktomine:ClaireA.KruschkeandLorenD.KruschkeContents1ThisBook'sOrganization:ReadMeFirst!

3、11.1Realpeoplecanreadthisbook........................11.2Prerequisites..................................21.3Theorganizationofthisbook.........................31.3.1Whataretheessentialchapters?...................31.3.2Where'stheequivalentoftraditionaltest

4、Xinthisbook?......41.4Gimmefeedback(bepolite).........................51.5Acknowledgments..............................5ITheBasics:Parameters,Probability,Bayes'Rule,andR72Introduction:Modelswebelievein92.1Modelsofobservationsandmodelsofbeliefs...........

5、.....102.1.1Modelshaveparameters.......................112.1.2Priorandposteriorbeliefs......................132.2Threegoalsforinferencefromdata......................132.2.1Estimationofparametervalues....................132.2.2Predictionofdatavalues......

6、.................142.2.3Modelcomparison..........................142.3TheRprogramminglanguage........................152.3.1GettingandinstallingR.......................152.3.2InvokingRandusingthecommandline...............152.3.3AsimpleexampleofRinaction.

7、..................162.3.4GettinghelpinR...........................172.3.5ProgramminginR..........................182.3.5.1EditingprogramsinR...................182.3.5.2VariablenamesinR....................182.3.5.3Runningaprogram....................192.4E

8、xercises...................................193Whatisthisstuffcalledprobability?213.1Thesetofallpossibleevents.........................223.1.1Coinflips:Whyyoushouldcare...................223.2Probability:Outsideorinsidethehea