The Art of Thinking Clearly by Rolf Dobelli.pdf

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1、ForSabineTheArtofThinkingClearlyRolfDobelliwww.sceptrebooks.co.ukFirstpublishedinGreatBritainin2013bySceptreAnimprintofHodder&StoughtonAnHachetteUKcompany1Copyright©RolfDobelli2013TherightofRolfDobellitobeidentifiedastheAuthoroftheWorkhasbeenassertedbyhiminaccordancewiththeCopyright,DesignsandPa

2、tentsAct1988.Allrightsreserved.Nopartofthispublicationmaybereproduced,storedinaretrievalsystem,ortransmitted,inanyformorbyanymeanswithoutthepriorwrittenpermissionofthepublisher,norbeotherwisecirculatedinanyformofbindingorcoverotherthanthatinwhichitispublishedandwithoutasimilarconditionbeingimpos

3、edonthesubsequentpurchaser.ACIPcataloguerecordforthistitleisavailablefromtheBritishLibrary.eBookISBN9781444759556HardbackISBN9781444759549Hodder&StoughtonLtd338EustonRoadLondonNW13BHwww.sceptrebooks.co.ukCONTENTSIntroduction1WHYYOUSHOULDVISITCEMETERIES:SurvivorshipBias2DOESHARVARDMAKEYOUSMARTER?

4、:Swimmer’sBodyIllusion3WHYYOUSEESHAPESINTHECLOUDS:ClusteringIllusion4IF50MILLIONPEOPLESAYSOMETHINGFOOLISH,ITISSTILLFOOLISH:SocialProof5WHYYOUSHOULDFORGETTHEPAST:SunkCostFallacy6DON’TACCEPTFREEDRINKS:Reciprocity7BEWARETHE‘SPECIALCASE’:ConfirmationBias(Part1)8MURDERYOURDARLINGS:ConfirmationBias(Pa

5、rt2)9DON’TBOWTOAUTHORITY:AuthorityBias10LEAVEYOURSUPERMODELFRIENDSATHOME:ContrastEffect11WHYWEPREFERAWRONGMAPTONOMAPATALL:AvailabilityBias12WHY‘NOPAIN,NOGAIN’SHOULDSETALARMBELLSRINGING:TheIt’ll-Get-Worse-Before-It-Gets-BetterFallacy13EVENTRUESTORIESAREFAIRYTALES:StoryBias14WHYYOUSHOULDKEEPADIARY

6、:HindsightBias15WHYYOUSYSTEMATICALLYOVERESTIMATEYOURKNOWLEDGEANDABILITIES:OverconfidenceEffect16DON’TTAKENEWSANCHORSSERIOUSLY:ChauffeurKnowledge17YOUCONTROLLESSTHANYOUTHINK:IllusionofControl18NEVERPAYYOURLAWYERBYTHEHOUR:IncentiveSuper-ResponseTendency19THEDUBIOUSEFFICACYOFDOCTORS,CONSULTANTSANDP

7、SYCHOTHERAPISTS:RegressiontoMean20NEVERJUDGEADECISIONBYITSOUTCOME:OutcomeBias21LESSISMORE:TheParadoxofChoice22YOULIKEME,YOUREALLYREALLYLIKEME:LikingBias23DON’TCLINGTOTHINGS:EndowmentEffect24THEINEVITABILITYOFUNLIKELYEvents:C