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1、JournalofEconomicBehavior&Organization82(2012)21–38ContentslistsavailableatSciVerseScienceDirectJournalofEconomicBehavior&Organizationjournalhomepage:www.elsevier.com/locate/jeboAbehavioralmodelofhousepricesJakob∗B.MadsenDepartmentofEconomics,MonashUniversity,900DandenongRoad,Caulfi
2、eldEast,3145Victoria,AustraliaarticleinfoabstractArticlehistory:Thispaperproposesamodelinwhichhousepricesaredeterminedbyeconomy-widenom-Received17December2010inalincomeandnominalmortgagepaymentsintheshortrun,whilebeingdeterminedbyReceivedinrevisedformacquisitioncostsinthelongrun.The
3、model,toalargeextent,explainsthe1995–200722November2011housingmarketrun-upintheOECDcountriesbylowermortgagerepayments,decreas-Accepted11December2011ingnominalinterestrates,andincreasingnominalGDP,partlyinducedbyalargeinflowofAvailableonline4January2012migrants.Empiricalestimatesgives
4、trongsupportforthemodelandsuggestthatitexplainshousepricesintheOECDbetterthanalternativemodels.Keywords:of©2012ElsevierB.V.Allrightsreserved.housepricesBehaviorInstitutionsAffordabilityFinancialinnovationsTobin’sqJELclassification:E130E220G1201.IntroductionThehousepricerun-upintheOEC
5、Dcountriesintheperiod1995–2007hasoftenbeenattributedtorisingincomeperhousehold,increasingproportionsofthepopulationinthe20–35yearagegroup,lowernominalinterestrates,andcapitalmarketinnovations,inconjunctionwithaninelasticsupplyofhousesintheshortrun(see,e.g.McCarthyandPeach,2004;Inter
6、nationalMonetaryFund,2004;OECD,2005a;BrunnermeierandJulliard,2008).However,thereisnowell-developedtheoryconnectinghousepricestoincome,demographicfactors,nominalinterestratesandcapitalmarketinnovations.Despitethis,incomepercapitaorincomeperhouseholdremainsoneoftheprincipaldrivingvari
7、ablesintheshortaswellasthelongruninalmostallmodelsofhouseprices(BuckleyandErmisch,1982;Meen,1990,2002;InternationalMonetaryFund,2004;OECD,2005a;Gallin,2006;Girouardetal.,2006).Thusfarithasnotbeenestablishedtheoreticallywhyhomepricesshouldbepositivelyrelatedtoincomeand,particularly,w
8、hytheincomeelastici
