housing market bubbles and the currency crisis the case of thailand.pdf

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1、TheJapaneseEconomicReviewVol.52,No.4,December2001HOUSINGMARKETBUBBLESANDTHECURRENCYCRISIS:THECASEOFTHAILANDByKAR-YIUWONGUniversityofWashingtonThispaperexplainswithasimplemodelthecollapseofthehousingmarketinThailandbeforethe1997economiccrisis.Itshowsthatsuccessiveperiodsofimpressivegrowthoftheeco

2、nomycreatednotonlyhigherdemandsforhousing,butalsoanincreaseinpeople'soptimismaboutmarketconditionsinthefuture.Bothoversupplyandbubbleswereformedbeforethemarket®nallycrashed.Themodelexplainssomeofthesephenomena,anddescribesthenatureofthebubbles.Anironicpossibilityisthatafasterandmorepersistentgrow

3、thoftheeconomytendstoincreasethevulnerabilityofthe®rmsinthemarket.JELClassi®cationNumbers:F14,O11,O53.1.IntroductionTherecentAsian®nancial/currencycrisis,whichbeganwiththe¯oatingoftheThaibahton2July1997,surprisedmanypeople.Notonlythedepthoftheimpactsontheseeconomies,butalsothespeedofthecontagiona

4、ndthenumberofcountriesaffectedwereunexpectedandunprecedented.Whatseemedtobemorepuzzlingwasthattheseeconomieshadbeendoingsowellbeforethecrisis,withimpressivegrowthandsolidfundamentals.Evenontheeveofthecrisis,nearlyallforecastswerepredictingpositiveandhighgrowthratesfortheseeconomiesfor1997and1998.

5、Howwrongtheywere!Whathappened,andwhatwentwrong?Economists,tryingtocatchup,aresearchingforanswers.ThispaperfocusesonThailandandsuggestsatheory.ThereareseveralreasonsforlookingatThailand.1First,nearlyallcountriesinEastandSoutheastAsiawereunderpressureduringthecrisis,butThailandwasthe®rstonetoexperi

6、encetremendouscurrencyspeculativeattacksandthe®rsttobeforcedtosigni®cantlydevalueitscurrency.Second,thecurrent®nancialcrisisseemstobedifferentfrompreviousonesinmanyways.2Inparticular,thecountriesaffectedhadshownhighgrowthratesbeforethecrisis,3andtheirgovernmentshadbeenfollowingresponsible®scaland

7、macroeconomicpolicies.Third,Thailandhadshownsomewarningsignsinitseconomybeforethecrisis,althoughmostpeoplehadchosenThanksareduetoChongK.YipforvaluablecommentsandtoYi-ChiChenforhisableandef®cientassistance.1SeeWong(200