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1、From:O'Neill,Jim[IMD]Sent:10October201018:41Subject:CURRENCYWAR(RYING)...AvailableforExternalDistributionCURRENCYWAR(RYING)IhavejustreturnedfromtheUS,whereinthepast2daysIparticipatedinvariouseventsrelatedtotheannualIMF-WorldBankmeetings,andmetwithmanyinterestingpeople.Plentifu
2、ltopicswereraisedbuttwostruckmeasmostpopular.One,throughoutaGSclienteventreso-calledEmergingMarkets,thetopicofpendingsignificantassetallocationstothebravenewworldwasdiscussedrepeatedly,andinmynewlife,itissomethingIwillbeplanningtopursueinsomedepthwithmycolleagues.Thesecondwast
3、hetopicofcurrencies,withthephraseoftheweekbeing“CurrencyWars”.Myviewisthatthisissomewhatexaggeratedmediagrabbingheadline,althoughtherearesomecompetitiveissuesofcomplexityatthecore.Myownbottomline,isthatwearelikelytoseefurtherstrengthofcurrenciesofthe“newworld”againstallthoseof
4、theG3,butwhetherthisemergesinsomeorganizedordisorganizedmannerisupforgrabs.THEDOLLAR.Amongstthereasonswhythisisnotisnotastraightforwardtopic,isthattheDollar’sweaknessappearstobe,partaconsequenceoftheaggressivenessofUSmonetaryandfiscalpolicytotryandstoptheeconomyfromweakeningfu
5、rther.Indeed,Dollarweaknessisnotonlyaproduct,butprobablyadesiredone.AtatimewhenthePresidenthasdeclaredagoalofdoublingexportsover5years,andbelowtrendinflation,$weaknessseemsquitedesirable.Ononeleveltherefore,theUSitselfisparticipatinginthe“war”itselfalthoughassomeIdiscusseditwi
6、th,pointedout,itisconsequenceofpolicy.Whatcomplicatesthesituationsomewhat,isthattheDollarappearstobe“cheap”againstanumberofcurrencies,primarilyinthedevelopedworldinthefirstplace,soDollarweaknessisbeingdesiredontopofaweakDollar.EachoftheA$,C$,Euro,SwissFrancandPoundseemquiteexp
7、ensiverelativetotheDollaraccordingtoGoldmanSach’ssocalledGSDEERestimateoffundamentalvalue.Ofcourse,asmentioned,thisissomethingthatUSpolicymakersareprobablyquitehappyabout,asatooltohelppulltheUSawayfromthestrugglesofthepostcrisisworld.THEYEN.AccordingtotheGSDEERapproach,theYeni
8、sconsiderablyovervalued,infactbymorethan2standarddeviationsag
