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1、ChinavsIndia:Differences,similaritiesandprospectsBenjaminFord,SeniorEconomist,ExportFinanceandInsuranceCorporationRemarksto3rdAnnualAsiaTradeandExportFinanceConference,Singapore,8September2011IntroductionComparingChinaandIndiaisanactivitywithalonghistory.Bothco
2、untrieshavelongfascinatedWesternpolicymakersandanalysts,but,atleastuntilrecently,theywerefairlysmallplayersintheworldeconomy.TheemergenceofChinaasabigeconomicpowerhasbeenaccompaniedbyamorerelaxed,albeitstillimportant,economictransformationinIndia.ThismorningIwo
3、uldliketoexaminesomeofthereasonsforthisdivergenceandthenspeculateonwhichcountrymightbemoresuccessfulinthemedium-term.Whyisthisimportant?Becausebothcountries,justbyvirtueoftheirsize,havethepotentialtobedominanteconomicpowersinAsiaandglobally.Theyarealreadyhaving
4、aneffectonglobaleconomic,tradeandfinancialrelations.Andtheyareakeysourceofactivityinanotherwisesoftglobaleconomiclandscape.Inshort,theymatternowandarelikelytomatterinthefuture.SowhataspectsofChinaandIndiaarewegoingtofocusonthismorning?Iwillcoverthree(Slide1):T
5、heirroleintheworldeconomy–Howbigistheirshare?Andhowmuchbiggercoulditbeinthenextfewyears?Acomparisonoftheirrelativestrengths,disadvantagesandprospects–IndiaandChinahavepursueddifferentapproachestoindustrialisation,and,notsurprisingly,thishasdelivereddifferentou
6、tcomes.Themediumtermandbeyond–Ifthecommonviewprevails,ChinaandIndiawillbecomeevenmoreeconomicallyandpoliticallyinfluential.Butitisworthexploringwhatcouldgowrong.ItisalsoworthrememberingthatinAsia,ChinaandIndiaaren’ttheonlylargerapidlyindustrialisingcountries.C
7、hangingworldeconomiclandscapeThebalanceofworldeconomicactivityandinfluenceisevolvingfast–ascanbeseeninChart1,theoutputshareoftheG7countries–theUS,Canada,theUK,Germany,France,ItalyandJapan–hasdeclinedfromoverhalftojustoverathird.Atthesametime,theshareofworldoutp
8、utofChina,IndiaandBrazilhasmorethandoubledinthelast30yearsto22percent.Thesetrendsarelikelytocontinue–IMFprojectionssuggestthatChina,IndiaandBrazilwillaccountfor28%ofworldout
