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1、DanielB.ThorntonFundamentalsofRIM20091/194DanielB.ThorntonFundamentalsofRIM20092/194Valuingcompanies’shareshasalwaysbeenmuchhardertodointhe“realworld”thanfinancemodelswouldsuggest.Thisisespeciallysoafterlastyear’smarketcrashandtheadventoftheGreatRecessioninwhichw
2、earenowliving.Ofthe1,250publiccompanies(excludingfinancialfirmsandutilities)listedontheTorontoStockExchange:TorontoStockExchange:•61%hadnegativeearningspersharein2008•75%paidzerodividendspersharein2008•53%hadnegativefreecashflowsin2008•21%ofthe1,250firmshadnegati
3、veforecasted(consensus)earningspersharefor2009;ofthese,61%hadnegativeforecastedEPSfor2010and20%hadnegativeforecastedEPSfor2011(ieallthreeyears)20%hadnegativeforecastedEPSfor2011(i.e.,allthreeyears)•3%hadnegativecommonequityin2008(includingNortelat–$4billion)Howwo
4、uldyougoaboutvaluingthesharesofsuchcompanies?DanielB.ThorntonFundamentalsofRIM20093/194TheResidualIncomeModel(RIM)providesapracticalwayoutofthisdilemmaandanexcellentwaytovaluecompanies’sharesinanyeconomicenvironment.RIMmeldsactualaccountingnumbers–theonesyouactua
5、llyseeoncompanies’financialstatements–withrigorousfinancemodelstogiveintrinsicvalueestimatesforcompanies’equitysecurities.Itprovidesthelinkbetweenequityvaluesbasedonfinancetheoryandtheinformationthatmanagers,accountants,andanalystsworkwithwhentheyproducefinancial
6、statementsforpublicconsumption.AnditworksforanyGAAP,,ywithoutanyadjjustmentsneeded,,aslonggastheaccountinggnumberssatisfyytheCleanSurplusRelation:ChangeinBookValue=EarningsminusDividends,orEndingBookValueforaperiod=BeginningBookValue+Earnings–DividendsMoreformall
7、y,theCleanSurplusRelation(CSR)statesthatb1=b0+x1–d1whereb0isbookvalueattheendofperiodzero(normally,today);b1isbookvalueattheendofperiodone(normally,oneyearfromnow),x1isearningsduringperiodone(normally,forthecurrentfiscalyear),andd1isdividendspaidoutattheendofthey
8、ear(endofperiodone).Insummary,end-of-periodbookvalueequalstoday’sbookvalueplusearningsminusdividends.NoticethatCSRisn’tsometheoreticalformulainventedbyacrazypr
