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1、articlesAgloballycoherent®ngerprintofclimatechangeimpactsacrossnaturalsystemsCamilleParmesan*&GaryYohe²*IntegrativeBiology,PattersonLaboratories141,UniversityofTexas,Austin,Texas78712,USA²JohnE.AndrusProfessorofEconomics,WesleyanUniversity,238PublicAffairsCente
2、r,Middletown,Connecticut06459,USA...........................................................................................................................................................................................................................Causalatt
3、ributionofrecentbiologicaltrendstoclimatechangeiscomplicatedbecausenon-climaticin¯uencesdominatelocal,short-termbiologicalchanges.Anyunderlyingsignalfromclimatechangeislikelytoberevealedbyanalysesthatseeksystematictrendsacrossdiversespeciesandgeographicregions;
4、however,debateswithintheIntergovernmentalPanelonClimateChange(IPCC)revealseveralde®nitionsofa`systematictrend'.Here,weexplorethesedifferences,applydiverseanalysestomorethan1,700species,andshowthatrecentbiologicaltrendsmatchclimatechangepredictions.Globalmeta-an
5、alysesdocumentedsigni®cantrangeshiftsaveraging6.1kmperdecadetowardsthepoles(ormetresperdecadeupward),andsigni®cantmeanadvancementofspringeventsby2.3daysperdecade.Wede®neadiagnostic®ngerprintoftemporalandspatial`sign-switching'responsesuniquelypredictedbytwentie
6、thcenturyclimatetrends.Amongappropriatelong-term/large-scale/multi-speciesdatasets,thisdiagnostic®ngerprintwasfoundfor279species.Thissuiteofanalysesgenerates`veryhighcon®dence'(aslaiddownbytheIPCC)thatclimatechangeisalreadyaffectinglivingsystems.1TheIntergovern
7、mentalPanelonClimateChange(IPCC)assessedhavetendedtoconcentrateonstudiesthatminimizeconfoundingtheextenttowhichrecentobservedchangesinnaturalbiologicalfactors,searchingfortrendsinrelativelyundisturbedsystemsandsystemshavebeencausedbyclimatechange.Thiswasadif®cu
8、lttaskthentestingforsigni®cantassociationswithclimatechange.Econ-despitedocumentedstatisticalcorrelationsbetweenchangesinomistshaveviewedthisasbiased(nonrandomexclusionofdat
