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1、EquitiesMarineBy:ParashJain,DeepakMaurya,EdwardStanford,PhilipSaliba,SeanMcLoughlin,andNicholasPatonApril2019www.research.hsbc.comGlobalContainerShipping&PortsMakingwavesUSD10-15bnpaopexvsUSD25-30bnone-timecapex–cleanfuelvsinstallingscrubbersisthebigIMO2020d
2、ecisionforcontainershippingForports,M&A,capitalstructuresandthepositioningofterminalsarekeyissuesWeidentifywinnersandlosers;incontainershipping:BuyareAPMMandSITC,Evergreen(upgradetoBuy);inports:BuyareDPW,ICTSI,ADSEZ,CSPortsandHHLA,anddowngradeCMPorts,GPPVandW
3、estportstoHoldandHPHTtoReduce;COSCOShippingandYangMingremainReduceDisclosures&Disclaimer:ThisreportmustbereadwiththedisclosuresandtheanalystcertificationsintheDisclosureappendix,andwiththeDisclaimer,whichformspartofit.THISCONTENTMAYNOTBEDISTRIBUTEDTOTHEPEOPLE
4、'SREPUBLICOFCHINA(THE"PRC")(EXCLUDINGSPECIALADMINISTRATIVEREGIONSOFHONGKONGANDMACAO)Whyreadthisreport?uAcomprehensivereportonglobalmarine,analysingtheimpactofthestructuralchanges,suchasslowertradegrowthandIMO2020uWetakeadetailedlookattheIMO2020preparednessofc
5、ontainershippinglinesandhowitaffectscompetitivepositioning;similarly,weassesshowportoperatorsarepositionedamidslowinggrowthintheirorganicportfoliouWealsoattempttolayoutthebusinessmodelsthatcanseparatethewinnersfromtheloserswithinourcoverageoverthelongtermCont
6、entsInbetweenIMOandTEU4Containershippingalliances161Summaryofestimates17Topcontainershippinglines162IMO2020–adisruptiveopportunity21Containershippingdemandmodel163Containershipping–demand-supplygapfinelybalanced31Containershippingsupplymodel164Environmentalre
7、gulations–Disclosureappendix165beyondIMO202045Disclaimer168Ports–playingthesofteningtradecycle50IFRS16isnoweffective–weassesstheimpact58Companysections61APMollerMaersk(MAERSKBDC)62COSCOShippingHoldings(1919HK/601919CH)69EvergreenMarine(2603TT)75Hapag-Lloyd(HL
8、AGGR)80OrientOverseas(316HK)86SITC(1308HK)91YangMingMarine(2609TT)97AdaniPortsandSEZ(ADSEZIN)102ChinaMerchantsPort(144HK)108CoscoShippingPorts(1199HK)114DPWorld(DPWDU)120GujaratPipavavPor
