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1、ABGlobalResearch4April2019EquitiesAmericasHeavyMachineryStevenFisher,CFAAnalyststeven.fisher@ubs.com+1-212-7138634ErikaJacksonAssociateAnalysterika.jackson@ubs.com+1-212-7131426NicholasAmicucciAssociateAnalystnicholas.amicucci@ubs.com+1-212-8825036MachineryAn
2、alysisUBSEvidenceLabinside:WhatwethinkabouttheMachinerysectorWearecautiousoncyclicalmachinerystocksWeseecapacitybalancinginanumberofplacesintheeconomyatthislatepointinthecycle,andwethinkthereisarelianceonstimulus/policyneutralizingforareason.Multipleexpansiono
3、nmodestlyhigherearningsseemschallengingthislatestageinthecycle.Whileaboveall,wepreferself-helporganicgrowthstories,fromanendmarketperspective,wearemorepositivelyinclinedoncompanieswithexposuretomining,agricultureandpublicsectorconstructionallelseequal,andmorec
4、autiousonshortcyclenamesandnameswithhighexposuretoprivateconstructionandtrucking.Abroaddebate:isacautiousviewbackwardlookingorforwardlooking?Thecaseforcautiontobebackwardlookingisthatrecentweaknessisafunctionoftrade(whichcouldgetresolvednearterm),interestrates
5、(Fednowonpause),oilpriceweakness(nowstronger),dollarstrength(nowbeinglapped),andweather(maynotrecur).Thecaseforcautionasaforwardlookingview(ourview)isthatcapacityiscomingintobalanceinseveralpartsoftheUSeconomy(freight,pipelines,officespace,constructionmachiner
6、y);Europeslowingispersistent,Brexituncertaintyislingering,andChinacrediteasingisfacinglimitsinaslowingeconomy.Q1previewthoughtsGoingintoQ1earnings,weseethefollowingasthemainchallengesforthesector:weather,weakindustrialactivityforpartsofthequarter,weakeninginEu
7、ropeandweaknessinshortcyclebusinessesandautos.Meanwhile,weseeopportunitiesrelatedtothefollowing:Chinaon/offhighwaywasbetterthanexpected,NAtrucksremainedstrong,oilpricesreboundedandpublic/industrialconstructionstrengthcontinued.Wefindmostmachinerystorylinestobe
8、reflectedinrecentstockmovements.ToppicksWeexpect2019tobeanotheryearofearningsgrowthformost,butastheyearprogresseswethinktheprospectforamodestslowdownin2020inprivateUSnon-res,Chinae
