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1、By:FredericNeumannandQuHongbinEconomicsAsiaQ22019www.research.hsbc.comAsianEconomicsWithaboostfromChinaTheslowingglobaltradeandtechcyclesaremakingforabumpyflightinAsiaButpolicyeasinginChina,centredontaxcuts,addsplentyofextrafuelDespitealltheturbulence,theregionthusremains
2、oncourseintheYearofthePigPlayvideowithFredericNeumannDisclosures&Disclaimer:ThisreportmustbereadwiththedisclosuresandtheanalystcertificationsintheDisclosureappendix,andwiththeDisclaimer,whichformspartofit.ExecutivesummaryBitofastumble.Afterholdingupwellformostof2018,activi
3、tyinmuchofAsiahasstartedtosaglastquarter.Exportsarepartlytoblame,andnotjustbecauseofdisruptionsfromtheUS-Chinatradetensions:theglobalindustrialcycleisslippingandthedemandforelectronicshasweakenedsharply.Thegoodnews,however,isthatpolicymakersareresponding.TheFed,forone,sign
4、alledapauseforthisyear,whichopensupspaceforratecutsinanumberofmarkets.Morepotently,Chinabeatexpectationsandunveiledapunchytaxcutpackage.ThisshouldgoalongwaytostabilizeMainlanddemandinthecomingquarters,andtherebyputafloorunderregionaltrade.Thereis,itseems,stillsomegasleftin
5、thetank.NowforthebiggerpictureItwasabumpyridelastyear,admittedly.Threebigshadowssuddenlyemergedovertheglobaleconomy.TheFed’stighteninglitafireunderthedollar,whippingfinancialmarketsabout,notleastinemergingmarketsespeciallysensitivetochangesinglobalfundingcosts.Then,tradete
6、nsionsbetweentheUSandChinariskedputtingadentinexports,whileraisinggreaterquestionsaboutthefutureshapeoftheworldeconomy.Andbymid-year,China,longtheglobalgrowthengine,startedtosputter,addingtotheworriesforinvestors.Dark,darkshadows.Atlast,somelightisstartingtoshinethrough.Th
7、eFedhassignalledapausetoitstighteningcyclethisyear,relievingpressureonhard-pressedborrowers.SignsofatrucebetweenChinaandtheUSarealsoencouraging,withadealpossiblebymid-year,evenifdoubtslinger.AndChina,atlast,hassteppedupeffortstoshoreupgrowth,fromtaxcutstoamarginalloosening
8、ofthemonetaryreins.Takeoutthesunlotion,then,andheadtothebeach?Notquite.AsHSBC’sGlobalChie
