软件项目风险管理理论与模型研究

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1、天津大学博士学位论文软件项目风险管理理论与模型研究姓名：冯楠申请学位级别：博士专业：信息管理与信息系统指导教师：李敏强20070501AbstractRiskisubiquitousintheprocessofinVestmentordeVelopmentandimplementationofsoftwareproject．RiskmanagementbecomesmoreimponantwiththeincreaseofsoRwarecomplexit)，andrequirement．ItisanurgentproblemtostudytheStrate

2、giestoanalyzeandcontrolrisk．Themaincontentsofthispaperareasf0110ws：Fi幅ny，thehisto巧andstate—of二the—artoftheriskmanagementarereViewedbothdomestically粕dabroad．Then，theconceptsaboutriskm明agementandso脚areriskmanagementaredennedbasedontheconceptofrisk．Thetheoreticalfoundationofriskmanag

3、ementandtheparticularityofso讯Ⅳareprojectriskmanagementarediscussedindetail．ARerfours够lesofriskmanagementsystemsareanalyzed，theiradyantagesanddisadVantagesarecompared．Third修，basedonestablishingariskeValuationsystemofso传wareprojects，ariskeValuationmodeIofsoftwareprojectinVestrllentb

4、asedonArtmcialNeuralNetwork(AjNN)isproposed．Themodeliscapabletoevaluaterisksef绝ctivelyintheprocessofsomⅣareprojectinVestmentbyVeri母ingthedataofsof℃wareprojects．Andintheprocessofmodeling，thefactoranalysisisutilizedtodecreasedimensionofsampledataandanoptimizationalgorithmbasedonthep

5、rincipleofgoldensectionisdesignedto行ndtheoptimalnumberofhiddenlayernode&Fourth坶，adynamicriskmanagementmodelofsofhⅣareprojectdevelopmentispr叩osed．Themodelcanmonitorriskstatescontinuallybyusingrisktrackmoduleandthenadjustrisklistaccordingt0thechangeofriskstatessothattheactivitiesoff

6、iskm锄agementmnintheflowwithfeedback．Fifth妙，AriskanalysisimplementationflowbasedonBayesianNetworks(BNs)forriskanalysismoduleispresented．Inaddition，theBNsisappliedt0riskanalysismoduleofarealcase．Themethodcanupdateriskdataandchangethestatesof“sknodesonline．nisfundamentaltoimplementdy

7、namic“skmanagementintheprocessofso觚，aredeVelopment．IntheprocessofmodelingBNs，thestructurelearningandpar啪eter1e踟ingofBNsaureanalyzeddetailedly．Atlast，aftersummarizingmaincontentdiscussedint11ispaper，potentialresearchdirectionsarepointedout．Keywords：s。fhvareproject，riskmanagement，Ar

8、t讯cialNeuralNetwork(ANN)，Bayesian