基于附随扩散模型的移动增值业务扩散的实证研究

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1、西南交通大学硕士学位论文基于附随扩散模型的移动增值业务扩散的实证研究姓名：霍娟申请学位级别：硕士专业：技术经济及管理指导教师：张震宇20081101西南交通大学硕士研究生学位论文第工I页ABSTRACTInrecentyears，withthedevelopmentofcomputers，communications，s&tware，microelectronics，andothertechnologies，themobilecommunicationsindustrytakesplacewith．thegreatchanges

2、．Theglobalspreadofthird-generationmobilecommunicationsystemnotonlymakesthecapacityenhancementofmobilecommunicationsnetwork，butalsopromotesavarietyofnewvalue—addedservicescomeintobeingatthesametime．Withthegreatwealthofvalue—addedservices，itisgettingcloserelationshipsw

3、ithpeople’Swork，life，entertainmentandothernecessities．Particularlyinrecentyears，withthecooperationandparticipationwith”SuperGirls”and”very6+l”and”Beijing2008OlympicGames”；toagreatextent，itpromotedthedevelopmentofmobilevalue-addedservices．Therefore，themobilevalue—adde

4、dservicehasagreatpotentialformarket．HowCanaccuratelypredictthefutureofmobilevalue-addedbusinessandhowtohelpoperatorstodevelopappropriatebusinessstrategyhasbecomethemostfocusoftheenterprises．Onthebriefreviewandbasisofthespreadtheory,inthisarticleImakeasystematicandcom

5、prehensiveanalysisoftechnicalinnovationtheoriesandmodels，whichwillbethefoundationofexamplesinthefollowingpans．BasedontheBassmodel，andwiththecombinationofsubjects，thatisfeaturedbyChina’Scontingentofmobilevalue-addedservice，withthespreadtheorybasedonPeterson，Mahajanand

6、Joelspreadtheories，andwiththetheoryofputtingtheoryintopractice，thearticlemakestheproveresearchonthemobileadd-valueservicesofChina’Stelecomindustry．TheactualsituationofChina'smobilevalue-addedoperationsintheempiricalstudies，someoftheevidenceadoptedbytheauthoritiesrele

7、asedChina’Smobilephoneusersfrom1990to2007，andChina'smobilevalue—addedbusiness西南交通大学硕士研究生学位论文第1II页customersfrom2000to2007，thechoiceofthreemodelsBassmodel，LogisticmodelandContingentmodelwerestudied,andchoosethefightestimation，thatis，non-linearleastsquares，thethreeparam

8、etersofthemodelestimates，aswellastheeffectoffittingforthefutureofmobilevalue-addedservicesmarkettrends．Theresultswerecomparedandana