纽约联邦储备银行做的调研

纽约联邦储备银行做的调研

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1、Volume14,Number6August2008FEDERALRESERVEBANKOFNEWYORKCCurrenturrentIIssuesssuesINECONOMICSANDFINANCEwww.newyorkfed.org/research/current_issuesHowEconomicNewsMovesMarketsLeonardoBartolini,LindaGoldberg,andAdamSacarnyExploringhowthereleaseofneweconomicdataaf

2、fectsassetpricesinthestock,bond,andforeignexchangemarkets,theauthorsfindthatonlyafewannouncements—thenonfarmpayrollnumbers,theGDPadvancerelease,andaprivatesectormanufacturingreport—generatepriceresponsesthatareeconomicallysignificantandmeasurablypersistent

3、.Bondyieldsshowthestrongestresponseandstockpricestheweakest.Theauthors’analysisofthedirectionoftheseeffectssuggeststhatnewsofstronger-than-expectedgrowthandinflationgenerallypromptsariseinbondyieldsandtheexchangevalueofthedollar.heU.S.governmentandsomepriv

4、ateorganiza-reviewandillustratesomeofthekeypatternsthatresearchersTtionsregularlyissuestatisticsontheperformancehaveobservedinmarketreactionstoeconomicreleases.ofthenation’seconomy.ThesedatareleasescanSpecifically,wetrackhowannouncementsofthirteeneco-leadt

5、oadjustmentsinthepriceoffinancialassetsasmarketnomicindicatorsaffectpricesinthreebroadassetclasses—participantsreassesstheirviewsoftheeconomy’scurrentbonds,stocks,andforeignexchange—overaten-yearperiodconditionanditslikelyfutureevolution.endingin2007.Indoi

6、ngso,wefocusonthemarket’sreactiontothepartofeachannouncementthatisactuallynews.ByNaturally,thenatureandextentofthemarketresponsewill“news,”wemeanthesurpriseelement,orthedifferencevarywiththeannouncement.Smallunexpectedchangesin1betweentheactualvalueannounc

7、edforanindicatorandmar-certaineconomicindicatorsmayrockassetpricesoveralongketparticipants’priorexpectationofwhatthatvaluewouldbe.period,whileshiftsinotherindicators—howeverlargeorsur-prising—arequicklyshruggedoffbythemarkets.Moreover,Ouranalysisprovidesle

8、ssonsontherelativescaleandper-whileannouncementsaboutsomeeconomicindicatorsaffectsistenceoftherecentresponsesofU.S.assetpricestoeconomicbondyieldsandexchangerates,newsaboutothersmaychieflyannouncements.Wefind

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