电力市场火力发电侧竞价上网策略及其仿真研究

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1、重庆大学博士学位论文电力市场火力发电侧竞价上网策略及其仿真研究姓名：胡效雷申请学位级别：博士专业：热能工程指导教师：何祖威20060930重庆大学陴上学位论文场中竞争对手的竞价行为的影响，提高了博弈论模型分析结果的可靠性。其中，最优竞价决策模型是基于发电企业利润最大化的动态优化模型，综合考虑了影响发电厂竞价上网的成本变化和利润变化的因素，运用遗传算法优化方法等优化算法和技术进行求解。本文第7章给出了智能化竞价上网辅助决策支持系统的应用软件总体设计．该总体设计方案的应用软件功能完备，模块划分合理，运行效率高，人．机界面友善，而且具备较高

2、的安全性、可靠性，充分预留了软件升级和功能进一步扩展的接口．在此基础上，本文的研究基本完成了广东沙角c电厂的智能化竞价上网辅助决策支持系统软件的开发。该软件现在已经投入实际运行，取得了较好的社会经济效益。关键词：电力市场，竟价策略，风险规避，系统仿真，博弈论，辅助决策系统II英文摘要ABSTRACTThereformofourcountry’Selectricityindustryisinprogr眵s．AftertheseparatingoftheGridandthePowerPlant,theexperimentfurtheest

3、ablishingoflocalelectricitymarketbasedonthebiddingsystemofindqaendentelectricitygeneratorhasbeeninitiated．Howtopredictthemarkettrendsbytherulesinfuturefuriouscompetitionmarket,andhowtomakeeffectivebiddingstrategies，etc．，arethesubjectsthateachelectricitygeheratorshouldbe

4、facedwitlLItisalsothehotissuediscussedinthescholasticfield．AccordingtotherequirementofconstructingtheintelligentbiddingDecisionSupportSystemforthethermalpowerplant,thisdissertationhascardedoutsystematicresearchonthesimulationofpowerpoolpricebidding,whichhascombinedthere

5、searchofpowerpooltheoryandtheauthenticcharacteristicsofthethermalpowergenerationprocess．Theresearcherfirstpresentanewideathatfocusonsystemsimulationinapowerpooltoachievingoptimizationofthepriccbiddingstrategybysystematicallycomparingthebiddingstrategiesbasedonitstheorie

6、sandthemodels，whichincludethepredictingmodelsofloadandSMPintheelectricitymarketcoupledwiththeconcerningofthecompetitor'sbehaviorsanalysis．InChapter2，bythoroughlystudiedthecharacteristicsoftheshorttermandthelongtermloadindifferentseason,thispaperhasadoptedaself-adaptiveg

7、rayANNtopredictthechangingloads．Throughthecomparison丽mtheBPalgorithm,itspredictionismuchclosewiththerealelectricitymarketdata．InChapter3，theauthorhasanalyzedthespecificcostsofelectricitygeneration．Itsemphasisputontheenvironmentalcostcalculationandtherealtimecostsupervis

8、ing,Chapter4focusesonthepredictionmethodsofpricefluctuationsinapowerp001．Aself-adaptivefuzzyANNhasadoptedforth