价格形态百科-双顶底(2)

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1、12、DoubleBottomRESULTSSNAPSHOTAppearanceAdownwardpricetrendbottomsout,rises,thenbottomsagainbeforeclimbing.ReversalOrConsolidationShort-term(upto3months)bullishreversalFailureRate64%FailureRateifwaitedforbreakout3%AverageRise40%,withmostlikelyrisebetween20and30%.VolumeTrendDownwarduntilbreakoutTh

2、rowbacks68%Percentagemeetingpredictedpricetarget68%SurprisingFindingBottomsclosertogethershowlargergainsSeealsoHead-and-ShouldersBottoms,Complex;HornBottomsPerhapsthebiggestsurprisewithdoublebottomsisthehighfailurerateat64%.Onlyathirdoftheformationsclassifyastruedoublebottoms.Theyaretheonesthatha

3、vepricesrisingabovetheconfirmationpoint,whichisthehighesthighbetweenthetwolows.Thefailureratetumblestojust3%ifonewaitsforconfirmation.Onlythoseformationswithconfirmedbreakoutsareevaluatedinthisstudy.双底形态失败几率高达64%。只有三分之一可以称为真正的双底。它们是价格穿越确认点的，两底之间最高价位。确认之后的失败率骤降到3%。本书只研究突破确认的双底。Theaverageriseis40%b

4、utistemperedbyathirdoftheformationshavinggainslessthan15%.Thesesmallrisesarebalancedbyathirdoftheformationsshowinggainsover45%.Themostlikelyriseisbetween20%and30%,relativelyhighforbullishformations.平均涨幅40%。三分之一收益低于15%。三分之一超过45%。最常见的是20%-30%。Throwbacksoccur68%ofthetime,suggestingitiswisetowaitfora

5、throwbackandinvestoncepricesturnupward.Insomecases,waitingforathrowbackcansaveyoufrommakinganunprofitabletrade.68%的情况下会发生回调。明智的策略师等待回调然后介入。Asurprisingfindingisthatbottomsclosertogetheroutperformthosespacedfartherapart.TheStatisticssectionofthischapterexaminesthisinmoredetail.一个令人惊奇的发现是底部接近的双底表现比疏

6、远的要好。TourWhatdoesadoublebottomlooklike?Figure12.1showsagoodexampleofadoublebottom.Pricesreachahighinmid-Marchthenheadlower.Forthenext3months,pricescontinuedowninasteadydeclinetodielowinJune.Volumepicksupaspricesnearthelowthenpegthemeteratover1.1millionsharesonJune18,thedaypricesreachalowof12.69.F

7、romtheMarchhigh,thestockdeclines47%in3months.Thehighvolumemarkstheturningpointandthestockmovesupward.However,aretestofthelowisinstoreandpricesroundoverandheaddownagain.InlateAugust,pricesmakeanotherlowwhenthestockdrops