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1、谁来解救乌克兰：西方还是俄罗斯？(双语)·2014-03-1815:43:27 来源:中国日报网(北京) 是民众对经济糟糕状况的不满激起了最近这场抗议活动。反过来，这又引发时任总统维克多·亚努科维奇的残酷镇压，反对派于是众志成城最终把亚努科维奇赶下了台。TheUkrainiancrisisisquicklybecomingageostrategicconflict.TheCrimeanparliament'sdeclarationofindependencefromUkraineaheadoftheMarch16referendumi
2、ndicatesCrimeamaypossiblyjoinRussia.AsRussianPresidentVladimirPutinmaneuverstorestoreRussia'srighttobehavewithasuperpower'simpunity-particularlyinitsownbackyard-theWestpushesback.Buteconomicforcesalsohaveshapedthisconfrontation,especiallyUkraine'srecordastheworld'sworst
3、performingindustrialeconomyoverthelast20years.Itwaspopulardiscontentwiththisdisastrousperformancethatfomentedtherecentdissent.This,inturn,triggeredabloodyresponsefromoustedCrimeanPresidentViktorYanukovych.Hisresponseconsolidatedtheopposition-andultimatelycostYanukovychh
4、isjob.Beyondthisweek'spoliticalandmilitarymaneuvers,theoutstandingquestionis:WhowillbailouttheUkrainianeconomy?Russia,ortheEUandtheUnitedStates?AbailoutwillbethepriceofdrawingUkraineintooneofthetwotradingsystemsonoffer.Statedsimply,Ukraineistheeconomicequivalentofafaile
5、dstate.Aftergainingindependencein1991,thecountrymovedbrieflytoliberalizeitseconomyalongthesamelinesasmostofEasternandCentralEurope.However,Ukrainesoonjettisoneditsreformsinfavorofthestate-oligarchmodel,whichwasalsoevolvinginRussia.Some20yearslater,Ukraine'sGDPhasshrunk3
6、0percent.EvenRussia'ssorryeconomyis20percentlargerthanitwasin1991.AndPoland'seconomy,whichlookedmuchlikeUkraine'sin1991,hasgrown130percentoverthesameperiod.Ukraine'seconomicperformancehasbeensoterribleandforsolongthatitssovereigndebtissuesarenowconsideredtheequivalentof
7、junkbonds.Evenbeforethecrisis,Ukraine'screditratingwasworsethanGreece's.AnditwasnobetterthanthatofArgentina,aglobalfinancialpariahforitsmismanageddebtdefaultsandsummaryexpropriationsofforeign-ownedcompanies.Ukraine'sdebtswillsoonbedue,withsome$15billioninsovereignbondsm
8、aturingthisyearandanother$15billionin2015.Withacurrentaccountdeficitequalto8percentofitsGDP,Ukrainecannotpayof
