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1、JAMESM.POTERBAMassachusettsInstituteofTechnologyHousePriceDynamics:TheRoleofTaxPolicyandDemographyHOUSEPRICEShaverecentlyattractedunusualattentionbecauseforthefirsttimeindecadeslargeareasintheUnitedStateshaveexperienceddecliningnominalhouseprices.Suchhousepricedeclinesa
2、renotun-precedented.Between1929and1933,nominalhousepricesdeclinednearly25percent,althoughtherewasvirtuallynorealdecline.1Andmorerecently,intheearly1980s,thepricesofhomesinoil-producingregionsfell.InCanada,too,citiessuchasVancouverhaveexperiencedsharppricedeclinesfollowi
3、ngrapidincreases.Theseepisodeshavenotbeenwidespreadenough,however,todislodgetheviewthathousingisasolidlong-terminvestment.Thisviewislargelybasedontheexperi-enceofthe1970s,whenhousepriceinflationoutpacedoverallpricein-creasesbyalmost30percent.Decliningrealhousespricesare
4、notsounusual.Forthenationasawhole,realhousepriceshavetrendeddownsincethefourthquarterof1979.JustbeforetheOctober1987stockmarketcrash,realpriceswere2.3percentlowerthantheir1979levels.Bythesecondquarterof1991,realpriceshaddeclinedanother5.6percent,withsubstantiallygreater
5、realdeclinesintheNortheastandsomepartsofCalifornia.IntheNewYorkCitymetropolitanarea,forexample,realpriceshavedeclined24IamgratefultoRobertBarro,OlivierBlanchard,KarlCase,DavidCutler,PeterDiamond,StanleyFischer,PatricHendershott,GregMankiw,WhitneyNewey,JulioRotemberg,Rob
6、ertShiller,LawrenceSummers,DavidWeil,andWilliamWheatonforhelpfulcomments;toGaryEngelhardt,DavidFrankel,WilliamMiracky,andespeciallyBrigitteMadrianforoutstandingresearchassistance;toSteveBermanoftheCensusBureauforprovidingunpublisheddata;andtotheNationalScienceFoundation
7、andNationalInstituteofAgingforresearchsupport.Adataappendixisavailablefromtheauthor.1.SeeGrebler,Blank,andWinnick(1956,p.344).143144BrookingsPapersonEconomicActivity,2:1991percentsincetheir1987peak,andSanFranciscohasexperienceda15percentdeclinesincemid-1989.Theselocaliz
8、edpricedeclineshaveerodedhouseholdnetworthandcontributedtothestressonmanyfi-nancialinstitutions.Recenteventsha
