美国牲畜、乳制品和家禽展望：2020年大多数红肉和家禽的出口预测将更高

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1、Beef/Cattle:Thecostoffeedingcattleisexpectedtorisethisyear,likelyslowingthepaceofplacementsinfeedlotsandreducinganticipatedmarketings.Thispromptedforecastsforbeefproductionin2019and2020tobereducedslightlyonlowerexpectedfedcattleslaughter.Cattlepricef

2、orecastswereloweredtoreflectcurrentpriceweakness.Beefimportscontinuetoexceedyear-earlierlevels,butexportslagbehindinearly2019.Dairy:Duetorecentdeclinesinmilkcownumbers,relativelyhighslaughterlevels,andhigherexpectedfeedprices,milkproductionforecastsh

3、avebeenloweredfor2019and2020.DairyexportswererelativelyweakinApril,andexportforecastshavebeenloweredforboth2019and2020.Theall-milkpriceforecastfor2019is$18.00percwt,5centslowerthanlastmonth’sforecast.Theall-milkpriceforecastfor2020is$18.90percwt,10ce

4、ntshigherthanlastmonth’sforecast.Pork/Hogs:Estimatedgrossprocessingmarginshavebeenconsistentlyyear-over-yearlowersinceearlyApril.Whilesecond-quarterpricesofbothhogsandwholesaleporkcutshavebeenyear-over-yearhigher,hogpriceshaveincreasedrelativelyfaste

5、r,andprocessormarginshavebeensqueezedasaresult.TherescissionofMexicantariffsonU.S.porklargelypromptedupwardrevisionsinU.S.porkexportforecastsforboth2019and2020.Poultry/Eggs:Second-quarterbroilerforecastwasrevisedupbasedonhigheraverageweights,whilethe

6、2020productionforecastwasloweredonexpectationsforhigherfeedcosts.The2019and2020broilerpriceforecastswereloweredbasedonweakdomesticdemandandhigher-than-anticipatedcoldstorageinventories.The2019second-quarterexportforecastwasreviseddownonslower-than-ex

7、pectedglobaldemand.The2020eggproductionforecastwasdecreasedbasedonexpectationsfortighteningproducermargins.Theeggpriceforecastwasdecreasedforboth2019and2020ontheanticipationthatsupplywillcontinuetooutpacedemand.The2019second-quartereggandeggproductex

8、portforecastwasrevisedupbasedonincreasingshipmentsofshelleggs.Turkeyproductionisreviseddownwardby5millionpoundsin2019and40millionpoundsin2020duetoanticipatedincreasedfeedcosts.Iftheforecastisrealized,productiongrowthwouldbevirtuallyflatbetween2018and