20110415 Global Research Highlights Investment Strategy

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1、GlobalResearchHighlightsInvestmentStrategyGlobal15April2011$127wasnobarreloflaughsJosephZidle+16468555854StrategistMLPF&S¢A$127barrelofoilwasnobarreloflaughsformarketsjoseph.zidle@baml.comOnFriday,8AprilBrentcrudeoilclosedata2011highofalmost$127/bbl.OilisSophieGuité+

2、16468552449Strategistdown3.5%since,whileglobalequitieshavefallen1.2%andbondshaverallied.MLPF&SAndUSeconomicdatathisweekshowedevidenceofstressfromhigheroilprices.sophie.guite@baml.comMarchretailsaleswereweakerthanexpected,bothimportsandexportsslowedinSwathiPutcha+1646

3、74301981Q,andwhiletheFed’sBeigeBookreportwasstrong,somedistrictsexpressedStrategistMLPF&Sconcernoverrisingcostsamidweakwages(Hanson,page3).Webelievetheswathi.putcha@baml.comeconomyandequitymarketscanweatherourbasecaseassumptionofa$140/bblInvestmentStrategy2Qpeakinoil

4、,butthisweekwasaremindertheymayshowstressasapeaknears.MLPF&SWatchtacticalindicatorsSometacticalindicatorsarebeginningtosuggestthatequitiescouldberipeforatacticalcorrection.Onpage4,ChiefGlobalEquityStrategistMichaelHartnettnotesthatthreeofhissevenproprietary“rulesandt

5、ools”thatcanhelpinvestorsidentifyshort-termsentimenttowardequitymarketsareapproachinga“sell”signal.TechnicalAnalystMaryAnnBartels’indicatorssimilarlyshowverybullishequitysentiment,whichcanbeacontrarianindicator.Thepercentageofbearsinthemarketisnow16%,belowthe20%warni

6、ngsignal(page5).Atacertainlevel,equitieswilllikelynotabidehigheroil.Webelievewearenearingthatlevel.SomethinghastogiveOilislimitedinsupplyanddemandfromemergingmarketsisontherise.Along-termsolutiontothiswillincludemoreenergysubstitutionandefficienciesClicktheimageabove

7、towatchthevideo.accordingtoCommodityStrategistSabineSchels(page6).Already,theenergyrequiredperunitofGDPhasfallenby2.4%peryearsince1980andwilllikelyfallfurther.However,intheshortrunwebelievemoredemanddestructionmaybeThisweekinmarkets2requiredforoilpricestoadjust.Topma

8、croreportsoftheweekNotalleconomiesareimpactedequallyUSEconomics–MichaelS.Hanson3ThisweektheIMFreviseditsglobalGDPgrowthprojections,