Livestock and Products Annual_Beijing_China - Peoples Republic of_9-23-2012

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1、THISREPORTCONTAINSASSESSMENTSOFCOMMODITYANDTRADEISSUESMADEBYUSDASTAFFANDNOTNECESSARILYSTATEMENTSOFOFFICIALU.S.GOVERNMENTPOLICYRequiredReport-publicdistributionDate:9/23/2012GAINReportNumber:CH12056China-PeoplesRepublicofLivestockandProductsAnnualAnnualApprovedBy:ChandaBeckmanPreparedBy:RyanScottand

2、ZhangJianpingReportHighlights:ThisreportforecastsFAS/Beijing’sestimatesfor2013andalsoincludesrevisionsfor2012.China’sbeefproductionin2013isforecasttoincreaselessthanonepercentto5.58millionmetrictons(MMT),carcassweightequivalence(CWE).Relativelylowdomesticproductionandrisingdemandbythemiddleclassare

3、expectedtodrivethe12percentincreaseinbeefimportsto34,000MT(CWE).Beefexportsareforecasttocontinuedownwardofnearlysevenpercentto43,000MT(CWE)becauseofhigherexportunitpricesandlessdemandinHongKongandJapan.Livecattleexportswillremainat30,000headbecauseofleveldemandinHongKongandMacau.China’sporkproducti

4、onisforecasttoincreasemodestlybyabouttwopercentabovetherevised2012estimateto52.65MMT(CWE)becauseofaslowerpaceofincreaseinpigcropproductionandslaughter.Porkimportsareexpectedtoincreasefivepercentto840,000MT(CWE)largelyduetoslower-than-expectedgrowthindomesticproduction.Porkexportsareforecasttodeclin

5、esevenpercentto200,000MT(CWE)duetoweakdemandinexportmarkets.Liveswineexportswillremainflatatnearly1.6millionhead.ExecutiveSummaryChina’sbeefproductionin2013isforecasttoincreaselessthanonepercentto5.58millionmetrictons(MMT)duetoslightlyhighercalfproductionandslaughter.Thegovernment’ssubsidytosupport

6、beefcowproductionwillnodoubthelpbeefcowstocksandcalfcropproductionincomingyears.Totalbeefconsumptionisexpectedtoshiftupwardsinresponsetosteadyimportsandslightlyhigherdomesticbeefproduction.Beefimportsareexpectedtoincrease12percentfromtherevised2012estimateto34,000metrictons(MT),carcassweightequival

7、ence(CWE),drivenbyrobustdemandfromtherisingmiddleclass.However,decreasedconsumptionoflower-incomeconsumersisoffsetbyincreasedmiddle-classconsumption.Asaresult,percapitaconsumptionremainsonlyabout4kilograms(