Thesis - Probabilistic Models for Life Cycle Management of E

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1、ProbabilisticModelsforLifeCycleManagementofEnergyInfrastructureSystemsbySureshVarmaDatlaAthesispresentedtotheUniversityofWaterlooinfulfillmentofthethesisrequirementforthedegreeofDoctorofPhilosophyinCivilEngineeringWaterloo,Ontario,Canada,2007©SureshDatla2007AUTHOR'SDECLARATION

2、IherebydeclarethatIamthesoleauthorofthisthesis.Thisisatruecopyofthethesis,includinganyrequiredfinalrevisions,asacceptedbymyexaminers.Iunderstandthatmythesismaybemadeelectronicallyavailabletothepublic.iiAbstractThedegradationofagingenergyinfrastructuresystemshasthepotentialtoin

3、creasetheriskoffailure,resultinginpoweroutageandcostlyunplannedmaintenancework.Therefore,thedevelopmentofscientificandcost-effectivelifecyclemanagement(LCM)strategieshasbecomeincreasinglyimportanttomaintainenergyinfrastructure.Sincedegradationofagingequipmentisanuncertainproce

4、sswhichdependsonmanyfactors,arisk-basedapproachisrequiredtoconsidertheeffectofvariousuncertaintiesinLCM.Thethesispresentsprobabilisticmodelstosupportrisk-basedlifecyclemanagementofenergyinfrastructuresystems.Inadditiontouncertaintyindegradationprocess,theinspectiondatacollecte

5、dbytheenergyindustryisoftencensoredandtruncatedwhichmakeitdifficulttoestimatethelifetimeprobabilitydistributionoftheequipment.Thethesispresentsmodernstatisticaltechniquesinquantifyinguncertaintiesassociatedwithinspectiondataandtoestimatethelifetimedistributionsinaconsistentman

6、ner.Age-basedandsequentialinspection-basedreplacementmodelsareproposedformaintenanceofcomponentinalarge-distributionnetwork.Aprobabilisticlifetimemodeltoconsidertheeffectofimperfectpreventivemaintenanceofacomponentisdevelopedanditsimpacttomaintenanceoptimizationisillustrated.T

7、hethesispresentsastochasticmodelforthepittingcorrosionprocessinsteamgenerators(SG),whichisaseriousformofdegradationinSGtubingofsomenucleargeneratingstations.Themodelisappliedtoestimatethenumberoftubesrequiringpluggingandtheprobabilityoftubeleakageinanoperatingperiod.Theapplica

8、tionandbenefitsofthemodelareillustratedinthecontextofmanaging