Duels of Systems and Forces英文

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1、239DuelsofSystemsandForcesHelgeLöfstedt*Thispaperbeginswithabriefsummaryofthevitalchangesinwarfareduringthelastdecadesasseenbytheauthor:Massarmiesarenolongercommontoolsforwarfare.The“big”warhasbecomeunusual,whilelimited(andcontrolled)useofmilitaryforcesforpol

2、iticalpurposestillisinuse.Howevertheabilitytomaneuverandfightwithweaponsstillremainsabasicmilitaryskillandmodelingofcombatremainsimportantforunderstandingwar.Aformulationofabasicproblemforsingleweaponsystemsismadeandtheeffectsoftechnologydevelopmentarediscuss

3、edinthatcontext.FurthercommentsaregivenonproblemsininformationprocessinginmodernweaponsandinCommand,Control,CommunicationandIntelligence,wherethetechnologicalchangesareexpectedtoberevolutionary.Ashortcommentisalsogivenontransformingsingleweaponsdatatoforcecha

4、rac-teristics,whichisimportantforconnectinganalysesonlowlevelswiththoseonhighlevels.TheauthoralsogivessomecommentsonOperationsOtherThanWarandAsymmetricWar–whicharenewchallengesformilitaryanalystsaswellasofficers.Finallyacritiqueisgivenonthestateoftheartinmili

5、tarymodeling.1IntroductionThispaperfocusesonduelsofsystemsandforcesinwarandwillgivesometho-ughtsontechnologychangesandtheuseofquantitativemodelinginthatcontext.Thesethoughtsarebasedonmyexperiencefrommorethanthirtyyearsasamili-taryanalyst(operationsresearch)at

6、theSwedishDefenceResearchAgency.Thecentralpartofmypapergivessomedifferentbackgroundviewstohelpunderstandthepresentdevelopmentinwarfare.Thetechnologicalchangeisofcourseafascinatingandterrifyingsubject,whichalsowillbecentralinthispre-sentation.However,itisalsov

7、italtomentionthedevelopmentofattitudestovio-lence,whichgivesaframeworkforwarfareactivities.2CharacteristicsinPresentandFutureWarfareBeforegoingintotheduelsofsystemsandforces,itwillbeusefultomentionsomecharacteristicsinpresentandfuturewarfare.Thefirstcharacter

8、isticisthatwehavebeenabletoavoidall-out-warwithmassarmiesduringthelasthalfcentury.*SwedishDefenceResearchAgency.Email:helge.lofstedt@foi.seGut-zu-Druck:5.8.2003240HelgeLöfstedtTheremaybes