The Total Growth of Open Source

《The Total Growth of Open Source》由会员上传分享，免费在线阅读，更多相关内容在学术论文-天天文库。

1、TheTotalGrowthofOpenSourceAmitDeshpandeDirkRiehleSAPResearch,SAPLabsLLCSAPResearch,SAPLabsLLC3475DeerCreekRd3475DeerCreekRdPaloAlto,CA,94304U.S.A.PaloAlto,CA,94304U.S.A.amit@amit-deshpande.comdirk@riehle.orgAbstract.Softwaredevelopmentisundergoingamajorchangeawayfromafullyclo

2、sedsoftwareprocesstowardsaprocessthatincorporatesopensourcesoftwareinproductsandservices.Justhowsignificantisthatchange?Toan-swerthisquestionweneedtolookattheoverallgrowthofopensourceaswellasitsgrowthrate.Inthispaper,wequantitativelyanalyzethegrowthofmorethan5000activeandpopu

3、laropensourcesoftwareprojects.Weshowthatthetotalamountofsourcecodeaswellasthetotalnumberofopensourceprojectsisgrowingatanexponentialrate.Previousresearchshowedlinearandquad-raticgrowthinlinesofsourcecodeofindividualopensourceprojects.Ourworkshowsthatopensourceisexpandinginton

4、ewdomainsandapplicationsatanexponentialrate.1IntroductionSoftwaredevelopmentisundergoingamajorchangefrombeingafullyclosedsoft-waredevelopmentprocesstowardsamorecommunitydrivenopensourcesoftwaredevelopmentprocess.SuccessfulopensourceprojectslikeLinux,Apache,Postgre-SQLandmanyo

5、thersaregrowingsuper-linearly.Previousresearchshowedthatlinearandquadraticgrowthisthedominantgrowthpatternofopensourcesoftwareprojects[5][8][15][16][18][22].Inthispaper,weanalyzethecombinedgrowthofopensourcesoftwareintermsoflinesofsourcecodeaswellasnumberofprojects.Ourdatabas

6、econtainsmorethan5000activeandpopularopensourceprojects.Thedatabaseprovidesfinegranu-lardataofdeveloperactionsoverthelast17yearsfrom1990to2006.WeanalyzetheaverageamountofsourcecodeaddedpermonthforthetimeframeofJanuary1995toDecember2006aswellasthenumberofprojectsaddedovertime.

7、Wefindthatboththegrowthrateaswellastheabsoluteamountofsourcecodeisbestexplainedusinganexponentialmodel.Giventhatpreviousresearchshowedthatmostopensourceprojectsgrowatapolynomialrate,wesuggestandthenverifythatthenumberofopensourceprojectsisgrowingatanexponentialrate.Thispaperi

8、sorganizedasfollows.Section2discussesourmotivation,thehy-pothesis,an