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1、ComplementaritiesbetweenExportsandHumanCapitalinEconomicGrowth:EvidencefromtheSemi-industrializedCountries*AndrewLevinFederalReserveBoardofGovernorsLakshmiK.RautUniversityofHawaiiatManoaI.IntroductionExportorientationandhumancapitalinvestmenthavebothreceivedwidespreadattentionintheliteratureonec
2、onomicgrowth.Overthepastseveraldecades,numerousresearchershavemodeledexportsasanen-gineofeconomicgrowth,withthepresumptionthathigherexportscanleadtogreatercapacityutilization,economiesofscale,adoptionofmoreef®cienttechnology,orhigherforeignexchangeinordertoimportsupe-riorcapitalgoodsandrawmateri
3、als.Recently,R.E.Lucas,Jr.,andC.AzariadisandA.Drazen,amongothers,havebuilttheoreticalmodelsinwhichsustainedlong-rungrowthisdrivenbythehumancapitalin-1vestmentofoptimizinghouseholds.Thistheoreticalresearchhasalsogeneratedrenewedinterestincross-countrygrowthregressionsdesignedtoevaluatetheempirica
4、lsigni®canceofvariousstructuralandpolicyin-dicators.Inarecentreviewoftheempiricalliterature,R.LevineandD.ReneltanalyzedthedeterminantsoftheaverageannualgrowthrateofGDPpercapitaforasampleof101countriesovertheperiod1960±2389.Byapplyingthemethodofextremeboundsanalysis,LevineandReneltdemonstratedtha
5、tthestatisticalsigni®canceofnearlyeverystruc-turalandpolicyindicatorishighlysensitivetotheinclusionofadditionalexplanatoryvariables.Theonlyvariablesfoundtopossessfairlyrobustpredictivepowerweretherateofinvestment,thegrowthrateofinterna-tionaltrade,andtheinitiallevelofrealGDPpercapita.However,two
6、criticalissueshaveremainedunresolvedconcerningtheroleofexportsandhumancapitalinthedeterminationoflong-runeconomicgrowth.First,whileLevineandReneltfoundahighlyrobustrelationshipã1997byTheUniversityofChicago.Allrightsreserved.0013-0079/98/4601-0006$02.00156EconomicDevelopmentandCulturalChangebetwe
7、enGDPgrowthandthegrowthrateofinternationaltrade,thechannelsthroughwhichtradein¯uencesGDPgrowthremainunclear.Threedifferentmeasuresofthegrowthrateofinternationaltrade(i.e.,totalexports,totalimports,andtotaltrade)haveanearlyid
