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1、Property-HongKongIndustryOverviewEquity
2、HongKong
3、Property06March2014SizingtheHK(office)upsand(retail)downsKarlChoi,CFA>>+85225363108ResearchAnalystMerrillLynch(HongKong)LacklustergrowthinHK,marketnottrustingChinagrowthkarl.choi@baml.comWeseefewimmediatecatalystsforHKlandlordstocksnearterm.WhileCe
4、ntralRaymondNgai,CFA>>+85225363987officemaystabilizethisyear,wedon’tseeastrongrebound,whereasretailislikelyResearchAnalystMerrillLynch(HongKong)tostaylackluster.Thereisgrowthinthesector,butincreasinglycomingfromChinaraymond.ngai@baml.com(notablyWharf).UntilinvestorsdevelopbetterconfidenceinChina’s
5、RonaldLeung,CFA>>+85225363728economy/liquidity,suchgrowthwillbediscounted,inourview.WemaintainBuyonResearchAnalystSwirePropandWharf,butlowerWharf’sPOby11%toHK$63(7%fromawiderMerrillLynch(HongKong)ronald.leung@baml.comNAVdiscountonChinamacroheadwinds,4%fromaslightlylowerNAV).IPOupsideforCentraloffi
6、ce:noteasytoattainTable1:SummaryofPOchangeOurregressionanalysissuggeststhatifequityfundsraisedonHKExcouldsustainPOtherapidpacein4Q13,Centralofficespotrentcouldreboundby11%.Yet,thisRatingNewOldwon’tbeaneasyfeatasthislevelofactivitywouldbethesecondhighestever(afterSwire(HK$)Buy23.023.0Wharf(HK$)Buy6
7、3.071.02010);thelastpeakinCentralofficewas2Q11(16.5%abovethecurrentlevel).HKL(US$)Neutral6.606.60Annualizing2M14IPOvolumewouldsuggestcontinuedpressureonCentraloffice.Hysan(HK$)Neutral38.038.0Source:BofAMerrillLynchGlobalResearchCentralofficetostabilizein2014,butclassdifferenceWeexpectCentraloffice
8、marketspotrenttoperformatthebetterendofourflattodown5%forecastin2014(barringanycreditcrisisinChina),butselectedbuildingsshouldstillbeunderpressure.Vacancyathigh-andlow-endofficebuildingsinCentralhasimprovedto3-4%,butisaboveaverageat6%(andrising)formid-endbuildings.Inparticular,webelievepressureism
9、oreacuteatCitibankPlaza(Champion),PacificPlace(Swire)andExchangeSquare(HKL).HKretailsalesgrowthlikelytostaylacklusterin1H14Ourcheckssuggestthathigh-endretailsalesinQ1sofarremainweak,butdonotseemtohavedeteriorated
