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1、234TheGaussianandtheMandelbrotianChapter16.TheBellCurve,ThatGreatIntellectualFraudNotworthapastis–Quételet’serror–Theaveragemanisamonster—Let’sdeifyit-YesorNo-Notsoliteraryanexperiment--Forgeteverythingyouheardincollegestatisticsorprobabilitytheory.Ifyounever
2、tookaclass,evenbetter.Letusstartfromtheverybeginning.THEGAUSSIANANDTHEMANDELBROTIANFigure16LastTenDeutschemarkbillrepresentingGaussandtohisrightapictureofthebellcurveofMediocristan.IwastransitingthroughFrankfurtairportinDecember2001,onmywaybetweenOlsoandZuric
3、h.IhadtimetokillattheairportanditwasagreatoccasionformetobuydarkEuropeanchocolate,especiallyasIhavemanagedtosuccessfullyconvincemyselfthatairportcaloriesdon’tcount.Thecashierhandedme,amongotherthings,atenDeutschemarkbill,an(illegal)scanofwhichcanbeseeninFigur
4、ex.TheDeutschemarkbanknotesweregoingtobeputoutofcirculationinamatterofdays,asEuropewasswitchingtotheEuro.Ikeptitasavaledictory.BeforethecomingoftheEuro,Europehadplentyofnationalcurrencies,whichwasgoodforprinters,moneychangers,and,ofcourse,currencytradersliket
5、his(moreorless)humbleauthor.AsIwaseatingmydarkEuropeanchocolateandwistfullylookingatthebill,Ialmostchoked.Isuddenlynoticed,forthefirsttime,thattherewassomethingcurious.ThebillboretheportraitofKarlFriedrichGaussandtheGaussian“bellcurve”smackonit.Thestrikingiro
6、nyisthatthelastpossibleobjectthatcanbelinkedtotheGermancurrencyispreciselysuchacurve:theReichsmark(asthecurrencywasthencalled)wentfromfourperdollartofourtrillionperdollarinthespaceofafewyearsduringthe1920s–anoutcomethattellsyouthatthebellcurveismeaninglessasa
7、descriptionoftherandomnessincurrencyfluctuations.Allyouneedtorejectthebellcurveisforsuchamovementtooccuronceandonlyonce–justconsidertheconsequences.Yettherewasthebellcurve,andtoitsrightHerrProfessorDoktorGauss,unprepossessing,alittlestern,certainlynotsomeoneI
8、’dlikewanttospendtimewithloungingonaterracedrinkingpastisandholdingaconversationwithoutasubject.8/4/06©Copyright2006byN.N.Taleb.Thisdraftversioncannotbedisseminatedorquoted.235TheGaussian
