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1、LandscapeEcology(2005)20:773–789ÓSpringer2005DOI10.1007/s10980-005-2149-7-1ResearchArticleTherelationshipbetweenenvironmentalamenitiesandchanginghumansettlementpatternsbetween1980and2000intheMidwesternUSA1,231EricJ.Gustafson*,RogerB.Hammer,VolkerC.Radeloff
2、andRobertS.Potts1USDAForestService,NorthCentralResearchStation,5985HighwayK,Rhinelander,WI54501USA;2AppliedPopulationLaboratory,DepartmentofRuralSociology,UniversityofWisconsin-Madison,3Madison,WI53706USA;DepartmentofForestEcologyandManagement,Universityo
3、fWisconsin-Madison,Madison,WI53706USA;*Authorforcorrespondence(e-mail:egustafson@fs.fed.us)Received19February2004;acceptedinrevisedform9February2005Keywords:Causesofchange,Ecologicalamenities,Environmentalperceptions,Housingdensity,Humansettlementpatterns
4、,Landscapechange,PredictivemodelAbstractNaturalresourceamenitiesmaybeanattractoraspeopledecidewheretheywillliveandinvestinproperty.IntheAmericanMidwesttheseamenitiesrangefromlakestoforeststopastorallandscapes,dependingontheecologicalprovince.Weusedsimplel
5、inearregressionmodelstotestthehypothesesthatphysiographic,landcover(compositionandspatialpattern),forestcharacteristics,landuseonundevelopedland,publicownership,soilproductivityandproximitytourbancenterspredictchangesinpopulation,housing,andseasonalhousin
6、gdensitiesovera10-yearinterval(1980–1990).Wethengeneratedmultiple-regressionmodelstopredictpopulation,totalandseasonalhousingdensitychangeinthemostrecentdecade(1990–2000)basedonownershipandecologicalconditionsin1990andtestedthembycomparingthepredictionsto
7、actualchangemeasuredbytheUSCensusBureau.Ourresultsindicatethattheindependentvariablesexplainedbetween25and40%ofthevariabilityinpopulationdensitychange,42–67%ofthevariabilityoftotalhousingdensitychange,and13–32%ofthevariabilityinseasonalhousingdensitychang
8、einthe1980s,dependingontheprovince.Thestrengthoftherelationshipsbetweenindependentanddependentvariablesvariedbyprovince,andinsomecasesthesignvariedaswell.Topographicreliefwassignificantlyrelatedtopopulationgrowthinal
