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1、UnderstandingtheMechanismsofEconomicDevelopmentAngusDeatonAngusDeatonisDwightD.EisenhowerProfessorofInternationalAffairsandProfessorofEconomicsandInternationalAffairsattheWoodrowWilsonSchoolofPublicandInternationalAffairsandintheDepartmentofEconomics,PrincetonUniversity,Pr
2、inceton,NewJersey.Hise-mailaggressis.UnderstandingthemechanismsofeconomicdevelopmentAngusDeatonApril2010ABSTRACTIarguethatprogressinunderstandingeconomicdevelopment(asinotherbranchesofeconomics)mustcomefromtheinvestigationofmechanisms;theassociatedemp
3、iricalanalysiscanusefullyemployawiderangeofexperimentalandnon-experimentalmethods.Idiscussthreedifferentareasofresearch:thelife-cyclesavinghypothesisanditsimplicationthateconomicgrowthdriveshigherratesofnationalsaving,thetheoryofspeculativecommoditystorageanditsimplication
4、sforthetime-seriesbehaviorofcommodityprices,andtherelationshipbetweeneconomicgrowthandnutritionalimprovement.Noneoftheseprojectshasyetbeenentirelysuccessfulinofferingacoherentaccountoftheevidence,butallillustrateaprocessoftrialanderror,inwhichalthoughmechanismsareoftenreje
5、cted,unlikelytheoreticalpropositionsaresometimessurprisinglyverified,whileinallcasesthereisaprocessoflearningaboutandsubsequentlymodifyingourunderstandingoftheunderlyingmechanisms.Economicdevelopmentdiffersfrommostfieldsineconomicsbecausethestudyoflow-incomeeconomies,andof
6、peoplelivinginlow-incomeeconomies,drawsonallbranchesofeconomics.Theparticularstudyofeconomicgrowthisperhapsclosesttobeingafieldlikelabororhealtheconomics,butwhatiscurrentlyreferredtoasdevelopmenteconomicsisbroader,sothat,althoughmyexamplesinvolveimportantissuesineconomicde
7、velopment,myconclusionsapplymorebroadlytootherareasofappliedeconomics.Inanearlierpaper,Ihavearguedthatlearningaboutdevelopmentrequiresustoinvestigatemechanisms(Deaton,2009).Findingoutabouthowpeopleinlow-incomecountriescananddoescapefrompovertyisunlikelytocomefromtheempiric
8、alevaluationofactualprojectsorprograms,whetherthroughrandomizedtrialsoreconometricmethods
