供应链管理(第5-讲)

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1、Chapter4DemandForecastinginaSupplyChainSupplyChainManagement7-1LearningObjectivesunderstandtheroleofforecastinginasupplychain;identifythecomponentsofademandforecast;forecastdemandinasupplychaingivenhistoricaldemanddatausingtimeseriesmethodologies;anal

2、ysisdemandforecaststoestimateforecasterror.2OutlineTheroleofforecastinginasupplychainCharacteristicsofforecastsComponentsofforecastsandforecastingmethodsBasicapproachtodemandforecastingTimeseriesforecastingmethodsMeasuresofforecasterrorForecastingdeman

3、datNaturalGas.com34.1RoleofForecastinginaSupplyChain4RoleofForecastinginaSupplyChainThebasisforallstrategicandplanningdecisionsinasupplychainUsedforbothpushandpullprocessesExamples:Production:scheduling,inventory,aggregateplanningMarketing:salesforce

4、allocation,promotions,newproductionintroductionFinance:plant/equipmentinvestment,budgetaryplanningPersonnel:workforceplanning,hiring,layoffsAllofthesedecisionsareinterrelated54.2CharacteristicsofForecasts6CharacteristicsofForecastsForecastsarealwayswro

5、ng.Shouldincludeexpectedvalueandmeasureoferror.Long-termforecastsarelessaccuratethanshort-termforecasts(forecasthorizonisimportant)Aggregateforecastsaremoreaccuratethandisaggregateforecasts74.3ComponentsofaForecastingandForecastingMethods8ForecastingMe

6、thodsQualitative:primarilysubjective;relyonjudgmentandopinionTimeSeries:usehistoricaldemandonlyStaticAdaptiveCausal:usetherelationshipbetweendemandandsomeotherfactortodevelopforecastSimulationImitateconsumerchoicesthatgiverisetodemandCancombinetimeseri

7、esandcausalmethods9StaticAdaptiveMovingaverageSimpleexponentialsmoothingHolt’smodel(withtrend)Winter’smodel(withtrendandseasonality)104.4BasicApproachtoDemandForecasting11BasicApproachtoDemandForecastingUnderstandtheobjectivesofforecastingIntegratedem

8、andplanningandforecastingIdentifymajorfactorsthatinfluencethedemandforecastUnderstandandidentifycustomersegmentsDeterminetheappropriateforecastingtechniqueEstablishperformanceanderrormeasuresfortheforecast124.5TimeSeriesForecastingMeth