外国精品ppt之sequoia

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1、R.I.P.GOODTIMESNOWWHAT?1WALLSTREETHOWDIDWEGETHERE?ERICUPIN3MULTIPLEPROBLEMSHOUSINGLEDRECESSIONOVERLEVERAGEDFINANCIALSFALLINGASSETPRICESFROZENCREDITMARKETSWEAKHOUSEHOLDBALANCESHEETGLOBALLYSYNCHRONIZEDSLOWINGEXACERBATINGALLOFABOVEFORCESOFINFLATIONVERSUSFORCESOFDEFLATIONMARKETCYCLESAREL

2、ONGDowJonesIndustrials(solidline)Inflation(dottedline)15,000BearMarketBullMarket15%10,0005,0001966-19821983-2000105019701980199020002008Source:BureauofLaborStatistics,DowJonesDRIVENBYPRODUCTIVITYANDCENTRALBANKSizeofglobalworkforceIndexedglobalproductivityFedfundsrate4B15010%836212541

3、20100019801990200020081996200220061990199520002005Sep2008Source:FederalReserve,InternationalLabourOrganizationRESULTINGINFALLINGINFLATIONANDCOSTOFDEBTU.S.inflation(annualyear/yearCPIchange)25%Yieldon10-yearU.S.treasuries16%12158Average5-5Average401950196019701980199020002007196019701

4、98019902000June2008Source:BureauofLaborStatistics,FederalReserveFUELINGANATIONOFCONSUMERSU.S.currentaccount/GDP2%0-2-4-6-819851990199520002005Source:BureauofeconomicanalysisFOREIGN$sRECYCLEDINTOTREASURIESDEMANDKEEPSLONGER-TERMRATESU.S.BUYSFOREIGNGOODSLOWFOREIGNCOUNTRIESUSEPROCEEDSTOB

5、UYTREASURIESASARESULT,DEBTBALLOONEDSource:BridgewaterDEPENDENTONTHEKINDNESSOFSTRANGERSSource:BridgewaterLIQUIDITYANDEASINGSPREADTOHOUSINGSinglefamilyhousingstartsDistributionofU.S.dollarmortgageoriginations2M100%GovernmentPrime-Jumbo80Prime-Average60Conforming140Alt-A20Subprime019801

6、98519901995200020052008E020022006Source:Bridgewater,NationalAssociationofHomeBuildersHOMEPRICESGREWSUBSTANTIALLYABOVEMEANU.S.realhomepriceindex2501998-20068.0%annualized2001501900-19291930-19970.7%annualized-1.2%annualized1005019101920193019401950196019701980199020002007Source:Robert

7、ShillerSTRUCTUREDPRODUCTSANDREGULATORYCHANGESCOMPOUNDTHESEISSUESGROWTHINSECURITIZATIONSLEVERAGEONTHOSESTRUCTURESINCREASEDLEVERAGEONBANK’SBALANCESHEETSOFTENMIS-RATEDBYAGENCIESREPEALOFGLASS-STEAGALLREGULATORYCHANGESENCOURAGINGHOMEOWNERSHIPHUGEGROWTHINDERIVATIVESOutstandingamountofopenp

8、ositionsinOT