how_bayesian_inference_works

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1、HowBayesianinferenceworksDataScienceandRobotsBlogopeninbrowserPROversionAreyouadeveloper?TryouttheHTMLtoPDFAPIpdfcrowd.comGettheslides.Bayesianinferenceisawaytogetsharperpredictionsfromyourdata.It’sparticularlyusefulwhenyoudon’thaveasmuchdataasyouwouldlikeandwanttojuiceeverylastbitof

2、predictivestrengthfromit.Althoughitissometimesdescribedwithreverence,Bayesianinferenceisn’tmagicormystical.Andeventhoughthemathunderthehoodcangetdense,theconceptsbehinditarecompletelyaccessible.Inbrief,Bayesianinferenceletsyoudrawstrongerconclusionsfromyourdatabyfoldinginwhatyoualrea

3、dyknowabouttheanswer.openinbrowserPROversionAreyouadeveloper?TryouttheHTMLtoPDFAPIpdfcrowd.comBayesianinferenceisbasedontheideasofThomasBayes,anonconformistPresbyterianministerinLondonabout300yearsago.Hewrotetwobooks,oneontheology,andoneonprobability.HisworkincludedhisnowfamousBayesT

4、heoreminrawform,whichhassincebeenappliedtotheproblemofinference,thetechnicaltermforeducatedguessing.ThepopularityofBayes'ideaswasaidedimmeasurablybyanotherminister,RichardPrice.Hesawtheirsignificance,refinedthemandpublishedthem.ItwouldbemoreaccurateandhistoricallyjusttocallBayes'Theo

5、remtheBayes-PriceRule.BayesianinferenceatthemoviesImagineyouareatthemoviesandafellowmoviegoerdropstheirticket.YouwanttogettheiropeninbrowserPROversionAreyouadeveloper?TryouttheHTMLtoPDFAPIpdfcrowd.comattention.Thisiswhattheylooklikefrombehind.Youcan’ttelltheirgender,onlythattheyhavel

6、onghair.Doyoucallout“Excusemema’am!”or“Excusemesir!”Givenwhatyouknowaboutmen’sandwomen’shairstylesinyourarea,youmightassumethatthisisawoman.(Inthisoversimplification,thereareonlytwohairlengthsandgenders.)Nowconsideravariationofthesituationwherethispersonisstandinginlineforthemen’sres

7、troom.Withthisadditionalpieceofinformation,youwouldprobablyassumethatthisisaman.Thisuseofcommonsenseandbackgroundknowledgeissomethingthatwedowithoutthinking.Bayesianinferenceisawaytocapturethisinmathsothatwecanmakemoreaccuratepredictions.openinbrowserPROversionAreyouadeveloper?Tryout

8、theHTMLtoPDF