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1、Garrison2Astheoryandpolicyhavedeveloped,theterms“naturalrate”and“neutralrate,”thoughseemingsynonyms,provideacontrastbetweenpre-Keynesianandpost-Keynesianthinking.Although“natural”and“neutral”aresometimesusedNATURALANDNEUTRALRATESOFINTERESTalmostinterchange
2、ably,thereisanimportantconceptualdistinctioninplay:ThenaturalrateofinterestisaratethatemergesinthemarketasaresultofborrowingINTHEORYANDPOLICYFORMULATIONandlendingactivityandgovernstheallocationoftheeconomy’sresourcesovertime.Theneutralrateofinterestisarate
3、thatisimposedonthemarketbywiselyROGERW.GARRISONchosenmonetarypolicyandisintendedtogoverntheoveralllevelofeconomicactivityateachpointintime.Exploringthisdistinctionanditsimplicationscangoalongwaytowardsunderstandingthecurrentstateofcentral-bankpolicymakingI
4、nteresthasatitleroleinmanypre-KeynesianwritingsasitdoesinKeynes’sownandthedifficultiesthattheFederalReservecreatesforthemarketeconomy.GeneralTheoryofEmployment,Interest,andMoney(1936).EugenBöhmBawerk’sCapitalandInterest(1884),KnutWicksell’sInterestandPrice
5、s(1898)andGustavCassel’sTheNatureandNecessityofInterest(1903)readilycometoTHENATURALRATEOFINTERESTmind.TheessaysinF.A.Hayek’sPrices,InterestandInvestment(1939),whichbothpredateandpostdateKeynes’sbook,focusonthecriticalrolethatinterestSonamedbySwedisheconom
6、istKnutWicksell,thenaturalrateofinterestistheratesplayincoordinatingproductionplanswithconsumptionpreferences.Theratethatreflectstheunderlyingrealfactors.InmacroeconomictermsasappliedGeneralTheoryrepresentsasignificantdeparturefromclassical(andAustrian)toa
7、whollyprivateeconomy,itistheratethatgovernstheallocationofresourcesthinkingbutnotbecauseofthetitle-rolestatusofinterest.Rather,thedeparturebetweencurrentconsumptionandinvestmentforthefuture.Bykeepingsavingandstemsfromthefactthat,inKeynesiantheory,therolepl
8、ayedbyamarket-investmentinbalance,thenaturalrateguidestheeconomyalongasustainabledeterminedinterestrateisadisruptiveone.growthpath.Thatis,governedbythenaturalrate,unconsumedcurrentoutput(realIncontemporarypol
