2 The Facts of Economic Growth

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1、TheFactsofEconomicGrowthCharlesI.Jones∗StanfordGSBandNBERApril6,2015Version0.4PreliminaryandIncompleteAbstractWhyarepeopleintherichestcountriesoftheworldsomuchrichertodaythan100yearsago?Andwhyaresomecountriessomuchricherthanothers?Questionssuchasthesedefinethefieldofeconomicgrowt

2、h.Thispaperdocumentsthefactsthatunderliethesequestions.Howmuchricherarewethan100yearsago,andhowlargearetheincomegapsbetweencountries?Thepurposeofthepaperistoprovideanencyclopediaofthefundamentalfactsofeconomicgrowthuponwhichourtheoriesarebuilt,gatheringthemtogetherinoneplaceand

3、updatingthefactswiththelatestavailabledata.∗Ifyouknowofafactthatwouldfitwellinthispaper,I’dlovetohearaboutit.Thepaperisdefinitelyaworkinprogress...THEFACTSOFECONOMICGROWTH1[T]heerrorswhicharisefromtheabsenceoffactsarefarmorenumerousandmoredurablethanthosewhichresultfromunsoundrea

4、soningrespect-ingtruedata.CharlesBabbage,quotedinRosenberg(1994),p.27.[I]tisquitewrongtotryfoundingatheoryonobservablemagnitudesalone...Itisthetheorywhichdecideswhatwecanobserve.AlbertEinstein,quotedinHeisenberg(1971),p.63.WhyarepeopleintheUnitedStates,Germany,andJapansomuchric

5、hertodaythan100or1000yearsago?WhyarepeopleinFranceandtheNetherlandstodaysomuchricherthanpeopleinHaitiandKenya?Questionsliketheseareattheheartofthestudyofeconomicgrowth.Economicsseekstoanswerthesequestionsbybuildingquantitativemodelsmod-elsthatcanbecomparedwithempiricaldata.That

6、is,we’dlikeourmodelstotellusnotonlythatonecountrywillbericherthananother,butbyhowmuch.Ortoexplainnotonlythatweshouldberichertodaythanacenturyago,butthatthegrowthrateshouldbe2percentperyearratherthan10percent.Growtheconomicshasonlypartiallyachievedthesegoals,butacriticalinputint

7、oouranalysisisknowingwherethegoalpostsliethatis,knowingthefactsofeconomicgrowth.Thegoalofthispaperistolayoutasmanyofthesefactsaspossible.Kaldor(1961)wascontentwithdocumentingafewkeystylizedfactsthatbasicgrowththeoryshouldhopetoexplain.JonesandRomer(2010)updatedthislisttoreflectw

8、hatwe’velearnedoverthelast50years.Thepurposeofthispape