Consensus Forecasts December 2013

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1、NZInstituteofEconomicResearch(Inc)Mediarelease16December2013ConsensusForecastsBroad-based,strongergrowthaheadTheNZIERConsensusForecastsareanaverageofNewZealandeconomicforecastscompiledfromasurveyoffinancialandeconomicagencies.ThesearenotNZIER’sforecasts.Theaverageforecastsdonotnecessarilyrepresentth

2、eviewsofindividualparticipants.ForecastsareforMarchyears,e.g.2014referstotheyearendedMarch2014.TheNewZealandeconomywillgrowstronglyoverthenextcoupleofyears,accordingtothelatestNZIERConsensusForecasts.Economicgrowthwillpickupfrom2.8%intheMarch2014yearto3.1%thefollowingyear.Economicgrowthwillbebroad-b

3、asedacrosshouseholdspending,investmentandexports(Figure1).Exportsthisyearweredepressedbyadrought,butwillgrowstronglyinfutureyears.Dairyproductionhasalreadyrecoveredstronglyfromthesummerdrought.Thelabourmarketwillimprove.Therewillbemorejobs,fewerunemployedandwageswillgrow,andthepaceofimprovementisbet

4、terthanpreviouslyforecast.Inflationwillpickuptowards2.5%overthenextfewyears.Interestrateswillgraduallyincreasefromearly2014.Figure1Broad-basedeconomicgrowthDriversofMarch2015yearGDPgrowthPrivateconsumptionPublicconsumptionResidentialconstructionOtherinvestmentExportsImportsGDP-2%-1%0%1%2%3%4%%ptcont

5、ributiontoannualaverageGDPgrowthSource:StatisticsNZ,NZIERStrongereconomicgrowthRealGDPGrowth6Theeconomicrecoverywillstrengthenfurther.5TheCanterburyrebuildisakeydriver.Thereis4Maximumalsoabroadeningrecoveryacrossother3investment,exportsandhouseholdspending.21MinimumEconomicgrowthwillacceleratefrom2.

6、8%in02014to3.1%in2015beforeeasingoffslightlyin-1Annualaverage%change2016(2.5%)and2017(2.1%).-2-3Economicgrowthisforecastat1.1%inthe1998200120042007201020132016Source:StatisticsNZ,NZIERSeptember2013quarter.RealResidentialInvestmentRobustresidentialconstruction60Residentialconstructionwillcontinuetogr

7、ow5040strongly.TheCanterburyrebuildisgatheringpaceMaximum30andthereisalsoacyclicalrecoveryinother20regions,particularlyAuckland.100MinimumResidentialinvestmentgrowthwillstillbevery-10strongat19.3%and1