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1、ApplicationofMarkovModeltoDynamicEmergencyEvacuationProcessforToxicGasLeakageaaaaa,KaiZhu,QianglingDuan,LinJiang,WeiguangAn,JinhuaSun*aStateKeyLaboratoryofFireScience,UniversityofScienceandTechnologyofChina,Hefei230026,China.*AddresscorrespondencetoJinhuaSun,StateKeyLaboratoryo
2、fFireScience,UniversityofScienceandTechnologyofChina,Hefei230026;sunjh@ustc.edu.cn.AbstractBasedonthecharacteristicsofthechemicalindustrypark,amodifieddiscretestatestochasticMarkovevacuationmodelisdevelopedtosimulatethemovementoftheevacuees.Consideringthetoxicgaseffectsimpairin
3、gtheroutecapacityandtheinherenttravelconditions,theevacuationareaisdividedintothreepartstoreflectthedifferentweightofthepossiblegasinhalationandtimecostinchoosinganevacuationroute.Thetransitionoftheevacueesfromroadtoroadisaccordingtotheone-steptransitionprobability,andthesoluti
4、onofthemodifiedMarkovmodelprovidesthedynamicspatialandtemporalevacuee’sdistributionwhichismoreinconformitywiththeactualsituationinthepark.Finally,consideringthemovementsoftheevacueeswiththefunctionoftime,theoutsiderescueteamcouldmakeeffectiveemergencyresponseonthebasisofthedema
5、ndsduringthewholeevacuationprocess.Keywords:emergencyevacuation;StochasticMarkovmodel;chemicalindustrypark;gasleakage1.IntroductionInrecentdecades,moreandmorechemicalindustrydistrictshavebeenfoundedindevelopingcountrieslikeBrazil,India,andChina.Inspiteofpromotingthedevelopmento
6、findustryandeconomy,italsobringsunpredictabledisastersforhandlingplentyofhazardousmaterials.JustinAugustthisyear,anaccidentofliquidammonialeakagehappenedinShanghaiinwhich15peoplewerepoisonedtodeathand8peoplewereseverelyinjured.Suchseriousaccidentshaveheightenedtheawarenessofthe
7、threatworldwideandappealedforamorescientificandeffectivesecuritysystemmechanism.Peopleemergencyevacuationisaveryimportantpartofthesecuritysystem.Itcanimprovedisastermanagementandhelpmitigatetheadverseeffectsbysavingpeople’sliveswhenaneffectiveevacuationprocessisorganized.Aneffe
8、ctiveevacuationreferstotheinteractionbetweenpeopleandc
