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1、JournalofRiskandUncertainty,5:297-323(1992)©1992KluwerAcademicPublishersAdvancesinProspectTheory:CumulativeRepresentationofUncertaintyAMOSTVERSKYStanfordUniversity,DepartmentofPsychology,Stanford,CA94305-2130DANIELKAHNEMAN*UniversityofCaliforniaatBerkeley,Depart
2、mentofPsychology,Berkeley,CA94720Keywords:cumulativeprospecttheoryAbstractWedevelopanewversionofprospecttheorythatemployscumulativeratherthanseparabledecisionweightsandextendsthetheoryinseveralrespects.Thisversion,calledcumulativeprospecttheory,appliestouncertai
3、naswellastoriskyprospectswithanynumberofoutcomes,anditallowsdifferentweightingfunctionsforgainsandforlosses.Twoprinciples,diminishingsensitivityandlossaversion,areinvokedtoexplainthecharacteris-ticcurvatureofthevaluefunctionandtheweightingfunctions.Areviewofthee
4、xperimentalevidenceandtheresultsofanewexperimentconfirmadistinctivefourfoldpatternofriskattitudes:riskaversionforgainsandriskseekingforlossesofhighprobability;riskseekingforgainsandriskaversionforlossesoflowprobability.Expectedutilitytheoryreignedforseveraldecad
5、esasthedominantnormativeanddescriptivemodelofdecisionmakingunderuncertainty,butithascomeunderseriousquestioninrecentyears.Thereisnowgeneralagreementthatthetheorydoesnotprovideanadequatedescriptionofindividualchoice:asubstantialbodyofevidenceshowsthatdecisionmake
6、rssystematicallyviolateitsbasictenets.Manyalternativemod-elshavebeenproposedinresponsetothisempiricalchallenge(forreviews,seeCamerer,1989;Fishburn,1988;Machina,1987).Sometimeagowepresentedamodelofchoice,calledprospecttheory,whichexplainedthemajorviolationsofexpe
7、ctedutilitytheoryinchoicesbetweenriskyprospectswithasmallnumberofoutcomes(KahnemanandTver-sky,1979;TverskyandKahneman,1986).Thekeyelementsofthistheoryare1)avaluefunctionthatisconcaveforgains,convexforlosses,andsteeperforlossesthanforgains,*Anearlierversionofthis
8、articlewasentitled"CumulativeProspectTheory:AnAnalysisofDecisionunderUncertainty."ThisarticlehasbenefitedfromdiscussionswithColinCamerer,ChewSoo-Hong,DavidFreedman,an
