Science in the Age of Computer Simulation

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1、ScienceintheAgeofComputerSimulationScienceintheAgeofComputerSimulationEricB.WinsBErgTheUniversityofChicagoPressChicagoandLondonERICB.WINSBERGisassociateprofessorofphilosophyattheUniversityofSouthFlorida.TheUniversityofChicagoPress,Chicago60637TheUniversityofChicagoPress,Ltd.,London©2010byTheUniversi

2、tyofChicagoAllrightsreserved.Published2010PrintedintheUnitedStatesofAmerica1918171615141312111012345ISBN-13:978-0-226-90202-9(cloth)ISBN-13:978-0-226-90204-3(paper)ISBN-10:0-226-90202-1(cloth)ISBN-10:0-226-90204-8(paper)LibraryofCongressCataloging-in-PublicationDataWinsberg,EricB.Scienceintheageofco

3、mputersimulation/EricB.Winsberg.p.cm.Includesbibliographicalreferencesandindex.ISBN-13:978-0-226-90202-9(cloth:alk.paper)ISBN-13:978-0-226-90204-3(pbk.:alk.paper)ISBN-10:0-226-90202-1(cloth:alk.paper)ISBN-10:0-226-90204-8(pbk.:alk.paper)1.Science—Dataprocessing—Philosophy.2.Knowledge,Theoryof.3.Scie

4、nce—Experiments—Computersimulation.4.Science—Methodology.5.Science—Philosophy.I.Title.Q175.32.K46W562010507.2—dc222010013703aThepaperusedinthispublicationmeetstheminimumrequirementsoftheAmericanNationalStandardforInformationSciences—PermanenceofPaperforPrintedLibraryMaterials,ANSIZ39.48–1992.Thisboo

5、kisdedicatedtothememoryofSuzanneG.a.WinSberGandFredWinSberGContentsAcknowledgmentsix1Introduction12SanctioningModels:TheoriesandTheirScope73MethodologyforaVirtualWorld294ATaleofTwoMethods495WhenTheoriesShakeHands726ModelsofClimate:ValuesandUncertainties937ReliabilitywithoutTruth1208Conclusion135Refe

6、rences139Index147AcknowledgmentsIwanttobeginbythankingthosepeoplewhoencouragedandmentoredmyearlyworkonthesubjectofthisbook:StephenKellert,MichaelFriedman,andFrederickSuppeatIndianaUniversity.Myfirstworkonmaterialthatisincor-poratedinthisbookwassupportedbyapostdoctoralfellow-shipintheHistoryandPhilos

7、ophyofScienceprogramatNorthwesternUniversity,whereIhadtheprivilegetoworkwithArthurFine.Thiswasawonderful,intellectuallystim-ulatingenvironmentinwhichmuchofthephilosophicalframeworkofthisbookemerged.Fo