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1、April16,2008ThisTimeisDifferent:APanoramicViewofEightCenturiesof*FinancialCrisesCarmenM.Reinhart,UniversityofMarylandandNBERKennethS.Rogoff,HarvardUniversityandNBERAbstractThispaperoffersa“panoramic”analysisofthehistoryoffinancialcrisesdatingfromEngland’sfourteenth-centurydefaultt
2、othecurrentUnitedStatessub-primefinancialcrisis.Ourstudyisbasedonanewdatasetthatspansallregions.Itincorporatesanumberofimportantcreditepisodesseldomcoveredintheliterature,includingforexample,defaultsandrestructuringsinIndiaandChina.Asthefirstpaperemployingthisdata,ouraimistoillust
3、ratesomeofthebroadinsightsthatcanbegleanedfromsuchasweepinghistoricaldatabase.Wefindthatserialdefaultisanearlyuniversalphenomenonascountriesstruggletotransformthemselvesfromemergingmarketstoadvancedeconomies.Majordefaultepisodesaretypicallyspacedsomeyears(ordecades)apart,creatinga
4、nillusionthat“thistimeisdifferent”amongpolicymakersandinvestors.Arecentexampleofthe“thistimeisdifferent”syndromeisthefalsebeliefthatdomesticdebtisanovelfeatureofthemodernfinanciallandscape.Wealsoconfirmthatcrisesfrequentlyemanatefromthefinancialcenterswithtransmissionthroughintere
5、strateshocksandcommoditypricecollapses.Thus,therecentUSsub-primefinancialcrisisishardlyunique.Ourdataalsodocumentsothercrisesthatoftenaccompanydefault:includinginflation,exchangeratecrashes,bankingcrises,andcurrencydebasements.JELE6,F3,andN0*TheauthorsaregratefultoVincentReinhart,
6、JohnSingleton,ArvindSubramanian,andseminarparticipantsatColumbiaandHarvardUniversitiesforusefulcommentsandsuggestionsandEthanIlzetzki,FernandoIm,andVaniaStavrakevaforexcellentresearchassistance.I.IntroductionTheeconomicsprofessionhasanunfortunatetendencytoviewrecentexperienceinthe
7、narrowwindowprovidedbystandarddatasets.Withafewnotableexceptions,cross-countryempiricalstudiesonfinancialcrisestypicallybeginin1980andarelimitedin1severalotherimportantrespects.Yetaneventthatisrareinathreedecadespanmaynotbeallthatrarewhenplacedinabroadercontext.Thispaperintroduces
8、acomprehensivenewhistoricaldataba
