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摩根士丹利-中国-体育用品行业-安踏与李宁Q3预览:强劲的销售预期-2018

'摩根士丹利-中国-体育用品行业-安踏与李宁Q3预览:强劲的销售预期-2018'
Dustin.Wei@morganstanley.com Lillian.Lou@morganstanley.com Alfred.Chen@morganstanley.com In-Line MORGAN STANLEY ASIA LIMITED+ Dustin Wei EQUITY ANALYST +852 2239-7823 Lillian Lou EQUITY ANALYST +852 2848-6502 Alfred Chen RESEARCH ASSOCIATE +852 3963-0533 China/Hong Kong Consumer Asia Pacific IndustryView Chinese SportswearChinese Sportswear | | Asia Pacific Asia Pacific ANTA and Li Ning 3Q Preview: Robust Sales Expected A sell-off of ANTA and Li Ning stocks speaks to market concerns over a potential sharp deceleration in 2H18. However, we think the 3Q18 trading update will provide reassurance of a robust sales trend for both companies. Market caution about potential sales deceleration .: On Oct. 9, ANTA was down 10.6% and Li Ning was down 5.2%, worse than HSI's -0.1%. While we cannot find specific news that triggered the stock plunge, we think market now factors in a sales miss for 3Q18 and a significant downward revision in consensus forecasts. It appears market concerns were prompted by: 1) higher channel inventory, deeper retail discount and sales deceleration for some other international sportswear brands; 2) a weak property market in tier 3-4 cities that could hurt demand for general softgoods and sportswear; 3) deceleration in e-commerce growth across the board, with 30% in 1H18 vs. 25% in July + August; 4) less consumer credit yoy in June and July; and 5) specifically on ANTA, its non-binding offer to acquire Amer Sports adds uncertainty to its future risk/reward, perhaps prompting long- term investors to lower their risk appetite. …but we predict robust sales growth for 3Q18 (Exhibit 1): For ANTA, we expect ANTA brand to report 10% retail sales growth and non- ANTA brands (mainly FILA) to report 80-90% retail sales growth. We expect combined retail sales growth of 30-35% for 3Q, which would still make it the fastest-growing branded consumer company in China. Despite the base and absolute revenue size being big, we think ANTA is still able to grow fast, thanks to favorable industry dynamics and its multi-brand platform. Sequentially, sales trends in September picked up vs. those in July and August, when we think sales were adversely impacted by 1) a slowdown after the 6.18 promotion in June, 2) negative impact from less consumer credit in July/August, and 3) unquantifiable weather impact. While some market concerns highlight a sales slowdown for ANTA Core offline, which contributed 40% of total sales in 1H18 (lower than 52% in 1H17), we think they may underestimate FILA brand strength, and ANTA's Kids and E-commerce segments. Within FILA, Classics, Fusion, and Kids lines, targeting different consumers, all grew strongly. Successful opening of Descente stores also adds to the strong topline. For Li Ning, we expect the brand to deliver mid-high teens retail sell-through growth. We think LN's performance in Sep. was stronger thanks to a lower base (favorable calendar shift of Mid-Autumn festival this year), better product assortment for the
关 键 词:
摩根士丹利 中国 体育用品 行业 Q3 预览 强劲 销售 预期 2018
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