OptimalCurrencyAreas最优货币区

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1、OptimalCurrencyAreasTheoryandEvidenceforanAfricanSingleCurrencyESDSInternationalConferenceNovember2005PaulAdamsM.ScDevelopmentEconomicsManchesterUniversityObjectivesofPresentationTopresentmyfindingsregardinganAfricanSingleCurrencyTohighlighttheimportance

2、ofinternationaldatasetsforthispaperToindicatedatagapswhichIfoundwhilstundertakingthisresearchRe-affirmtheimportanceofreliabledatafordevelopingcountriesTheTheoreticalBackdropMundell(1961)andMcKinnon(1963)beginthedebateonthesizeofOptimalCurrencyAreas(OCAs)

3、CentralconceptofasymmetricshocksandlabourmobilityManytheoreticaladvancements,oftenfromunexpectedareasofeconomicsImpendingEuropeanMonetaryUnionsawamorerigorouslyempiricalapproachtoOCAtheorySeeTavlas(1993)forathoroughoverviewTheAfricanBackdropSinglecurrenc

4、yapoliticalaimsince1963whentheOrganisationforAfricanUnitywasfoundedRenewedemphasissincetheAbujaTreatyin1994TitoMboweni,GovernoroftheSouthAfricanCentralBank,nowindicates2021asthetargetdateformonetaryintegrationPoorintraAfricantradelevels–just10%oftotalAfr

5、icantradeAfricanDataProblemsRelativelylargeareatoassess53countriescomparedto15originallyinEUMostlyconstituentofdevelopingnationsMorestraightforwardeconomicindicatorsonlyreliablyavailablesincethe1980’sCertaincountrieshavenoeconomicdataMorecomplexfinancial

6、datastillmissingformanycountriesTheWayForwardObjectiveAnassessmentofregionaleconomiccommunitiestoremoveduplicationInvestigationintothepossibletradeeffectsofmonetaryintegrationinAfricaSolutionAn‘OCAIndex’topredictconvergenceofaveragebilateralexchangerates

7、withingroupsAGravityModelofintra-AfricantradeRegionalEconomicCommunitiesECOWAS:EconomicCommunityofWestAfricanStatesCOMESA:CommonMarketforEasternandSouthernAfricaECCAS:EconomicCommunityofCentralAfricanStatesSADC:SouthernAfricanDevelopmentCommunityAMU:Unit

8、edMaghrebArabSuccessiveAllocationtoRegionalEconomicCommunitiesStageCountryRECChosen(Rejected)1MauritiusSADC(COMESA)2Congo,DemocraticRepublicECCAS(COMESA,SADC)3AngolaSADC(COMESA)4SeychellesCOMESA(SADC)5ZambiaSADC(COMESA)6Bu