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1、RegionalScienceandUrbanEconomics42(2012)396–406ContentslistsavailableatSciVerseScienceDirectRegionalScienceandUrbanEconomicsjournalhomepage:www.elsevier.com/locate/regecEconomicrestructuring,urbangrowth,andshort-termtrading:ThespatialdynamicsoftheHongKonghousingmarket,1992–2008☆a,
2、⁎,KelvinWongb,1c,2PaavoMonkkonen,JacleneBegleyaDepartmentofUrban,PlanningandDesign,TheUniversityofHongKong,840KnowlesBuilding,Pokfulam,HongKongbDepartmentofRealEstate,andConstruction,TheUniversityofHongKong,5/FKnowlesBuilding,Pokfulam,HongKongcDoctoralResearchFellow,FurmanCenterfo
3、rReal,Estate&UrbanPolicy,NewYorkUniversity,139MacDougalStreet,NewYork,NY10012,UnitedStatesarticleinfoabstractArticlehistory:TheresponseofhousingpricestochangesinthegeographyoftheeconomyandpopulationwithincitiesisReceived28July2011empiricallyunderstudied.Thispaperexaminesthespatial
4、dynamicsoftheHongKonghousingmarketbe-Receivedinrevisedform28November2011tween1992and2008,atimeperiodthatincludestwoperiodsofstrongpriceappreciationandonemarketAccepted28November2011crash.Neighborhoodhousingpriceindexesarecalculatedfor96census-definedareas,andpatternsofappre-Availab
5、leonline6December2011ciationduringperiodsofboomandbustareanalyzedwithspatialautoregressivemodels.EmpiricalresultsshowadifferencebetweenfactorsassociatedwithhousingpriceappreciationduringtheboomoftheJELclassification:R141990sandtheboominthe2000s,reflectingchangesinHongKong'seconomica
6、ndspatialstructureattheR31endofthe20thcentury.HousingpricesincentrallylocatedneighborhoodsincreasedbyamuchgreaterR41shareafterthecityde-industrialized,despitemassiveinvestmentsinthecity'stransportationinfrastructure.Aproxyforspeculativeinvestment,short-termtrading,isnotfoundtobeas
7、tatisticallysignificantdetermi-Keywords:nantofpricechangesattheneighborhoodlevelduringperiodsofappreciation.Housingmarkets©2011ElsevierB.V.Allrightsreserved.PriceindexesSpatialeconometricsChinaHongKong1.IntroductionFig.1showsthevolatilityofhousingpricesinHongKong.Pricesnearlytriple
8、dduringtheboombeforetheAFCandthen